HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results of 9th national VBP was released. The average price reduction was 58% and the maximum price reduction was over 90%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Hengrui (600276 CH)</a>'s challenge in VBP has just begun.</li>
<li>The whole CXO sector is more like a cyclical industry than a high-barrier industry. There’re still some pressures/risks have not been fully released. Its future may be darker than before.</li>
<li>Asymchem’s stock price performance follows the entire CXO sector. Whether Asymchem can obtain large Tirzepatide orders and provide investors with high certainty of outlook is the key for valuation reversal.</li>
</ul>


Results of 9th national VBP was released. The average price reduction was 58% and the maximum price reduction was over 90%. Hengrui (600276 CH)'s challenge in VBP has just begun.
The whole CXO sector is more like a cyclical industry than a high-barrier industry. There’re still some pressures/risks have not been fully released. Its future may be darker than before.
Asymchem’s stock price performance follows the entire CXO sector. Whether Asymchem can obtain large Tirzepatide orders and provide investors with high certainty of outlook is the key for valuation reversal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10) - 9th National VBP, Cyclicity of CXO Sector, Asymchem, Hengrui

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global generics revenue increased 9% YoY to INR61 billion, mainly driven by double-digit growth in North America and Europe generic businesses, partly offset by muted growth in domestic market.</li>
<li>Revenue from North America generics increased 13% y/y to INR31.7 billion, driven by growing momentum in core portfolio, Mayne integration, and favorable Fx. Pricing environment remains stable.</li>
<li>Despite increase in SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses, EBITDA grew 13% YoY to INR 21.8 billion. Net profit increased 33% YoY to INR14.8 billion. Both EBITDA and net profit topped estimates.</li>
</ul>


Global generics revenue increased 9% YoY to INR61 billion, mainly driven by double-digit growth in North America and Europe generic businesses, partly offset by muted growth in domestic market.
Revenue from North America generics increased 13% y/y to INR31.7 billion, driven by growing momentum in core portfolio, Mayne integration, and favorable Fx. Pricing environment remains stable.
Despite increase in SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses, EBITDA grew 13% YoY to INR 21.8 billion. Net profit increased 33% YoY to INR14.8 billion. Both EBITDA and net profit topped estimates.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Highest Ever Sales and Profit in Q2; Good Show in Key Markets

<ul>
<li>The early-stage clinical data of Hansoh’s B7-H4 ADC showed good potential, thus attracting GSK's attention. This would allow GSK to re-enhance the layout of ADC pipelines after its previous setbacks.</li>
<li>However, if future clinical data fail to meet expectation, GSK could return the product to Hansoh. After all, US$85 million upfront is more likely to test the waters for GSK.</li>
<li>Hansoh is already one step ahead of Hengrui in terms of internationalization. This short-term catalyst would no doubt help lift share prices, but the logic behind the rebound is shaky.</li>
</ul>


The early-stage clinical data of Hansoh’s B7-H4 ADC showed good potential, thus attracting GSK's attention. This would allow GSK to re-enhance the layout of ADC pipelines after its previous setbacks.
However, if future clinical data fail to meet expectation, GSK could return the product to Hansoh. After all, US$85 million upfront is more likely to test the waters for GSK.
Hansoh is already one step ahead of Hengrui in terms of internationalization. This short-term catalyst would no doubt help lift share prices, but the logic behind the rebound is shaky.


GSK Inks Eye-Popping $2B-Plus Pact for Hansoh’s ADC - Is The "New Story" About to Begin?

<ul>
<li>2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.</li>
<li>There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.</li>
<li>Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.</li>
</ul>


2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.
There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.
Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.


Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be $12.8bn in August and consumer staples, and financials sectors led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB, Wuliangye, Mindray, Moutai, Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
We estimate the outflows to be $12.8bn in August and consumer staples, and financials sectors led the outflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB, Wuliangye, Mindray, Moutai, Longi Green.


Northbound Flows Monthly (August): $12.8bn Outflows

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10) - 9th National VBP, Cyclicity of CXO Sector, Asymchem, Hengrui

Results of 9th national VBP were tragic. Hengrui hasn't escaped. CXO's industry prosperity has continued downward pressure. Asymchem still follows...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Highest Ever Sales and Profit in Q2; Good Show in Key Markets

Revenue increased 9% YoY to INR69B, beating street’s expectation of INRINR68, driven by double-digit growth North America and Europe. Net profit...

Tina Banerjee

GSK Inks Eye-Popping $2B-Plus Pact for Hansoh’s ADC - Is The "New Story" About to Begin?

GSK-Hansoh's ADC deal surprised many people.But if future clinical data fail to meet expectation,GSK could return the product to Hansoh.Current...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

In the insight, we analyzed major investment logic flaws of Zai Lab. As we expected, the company's performance is not ideal. The license-in model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows Monthly (August): $12.8bn Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for August and highlight flows for CATL, Wuxi Wapptec, Fuyao Glass, Foxconn Industrial, CMB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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