HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s product sales in 2022H1 more than doubled YoY, which was a positive sign for commercialization. However, net loss further widened, mainly due to significantly high R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.</li>
<li>Tislelizumab and zanubrutinib are not enough to support BeiGene’s high valuation. The success or failure of TIGIT project will be the key to determine how far BeiGene will go.</li>
<li>So far, it is still an indisputable fact that BeiGene has profitability issues. That's why it's hard for us to be optimistic about this company. </li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s product sales in 2022H1 more than doubled YoY, which was a positive sign for commercialization. However, net loss further widened, mainly due to significantly high R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.
Tislelizumab and zanubrutinib are not enough to support BeiGene’s high valuation. The success or failure of TIGIT project will be the key to determine how far BeiGene will go.
So far, it is still an indisputable fact that BeiGene has profitability issues. That's why it's hard for us to be optimistic about this company. 


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22H1- It Is an Indisputable Fact that BeiGene Is Difficult to Make Profits

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for record date as of Aug 5th.</li>
<li>Outflows from financials, industrials, materials were offset by inflows into information technology, consumer staples and health care.</li>
<li>We highlight outflows from Sanhua, Baoshan Iron, Sungrow, Han's Laser, Changchun High &amp; New Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for record date as of Aug 5th.
Outflows from financials, industrials, materials were offset by inflows into information technology, consumer staples and health care.
We highlight outflows from Sanhua, Baoshan Iron, Sungrow, Han's Laser, Changchun High &amp; New Tech.


Northbound Flows: Sanhua, Baoshan Iron, Sungrow, Han's Laser, Changchun High

Equity Capital Markets

Cali Biosciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Both the postoperative pain management and the expansive application of anesthetics in various fields would increase the market demand for ropivacaine.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cali-biosciences-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35539:1" rel="noopener">Cali Biosciences (CALI HK)</a>’s core product, the ropivacaine long-acting analgesic injection drug candidate CPL-01, would have to face the challenges of fierce competition, uncertain market acceptance, and negative policy impact.</li>
<li>Together with other concerns such as slow development progress, “not rich enough” pipeline and potential liquidity risk, we are conservative about Cali’s outlook at the current stage.  </li>
</ul>


Both the postoperative pain management and the expansive application of anesthetics in various fields would increase the market demand for ropivacaine.

Cali Biosciences (CALI HK)’s core product, the ropivacaine long-acting analgesic injection drug candidate CPL-01, would have to face the challenges of fierce competition, uncertain market acceptance, and negative policy impact.
Together with other concerns such as slow development progress, “not rich enough” pipeline and potential liquidity risk, we are conservative about Cali’s outlook at the current stage.  


Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

<ul>
<li>Innovent is expected to transform from a biotech to a biopharma. From the present point of view, the Company is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety.  </li>
<li>With high R&amp;D efficiency, strong sales capability, top talent teams, and mindset keeping pace with the times, investors could consider to replace Hengrui with Innovent in the portfolio.  </li>
<li>Innovent’s valuation anchor is HK$40 billion, below which it's undervalued. Its market value could reach about RMB80 billion to RMB120 billion, based on sales of RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion. </li>
</ul>


Innovent is expected to transform from a biotech to a biopharma. From the present point of view, the Company is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety.  
With high R&amp;D efficiency, strong sales capability, top talent teams, and mindset keeping pace with the times, investors could consider to replace Hengrui with Innovent in the portfolio.  
Innovent’s valuation anchor is HK$40 billion, below which it's undervalued. Its market value could reach about RMB80 billion to RMB120 billion, based on sales of RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Innovent Is Not Optional but Necessary in Portfolio

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.</li>
<li>Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.</li>
<li>Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.</li>
</ul>


Junshi’s fatal flaw is not that it is still suffering loss, or that its founders have no medical background, but that the Company is very short of money.
Considering the gloomy prospects of etesevimab/VV116, uncertainties in toripalimab and other late-stage candidates, we remain conservative about Junshi’s commercialization outlook. Junshi's higher valuation than Innovent is not justified.
Together with unfriendly macro environment, we don’t think heavy investment in R&amp;D/MRCT/commercial development could bring high return as expected.Investors need to be rational about Junshi's RMB4 billion private placement plan.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22H1- It Is an Indisputable Fact that BeiGene Is Difficult to Make Profits

Despite improved product sales, BeiGene’s future still depends on TIGIT project. It's hard to make profits due to high R&D and SG&A expenses....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows: Sanhua, Baoshan Iron, Sungrow, Han's Laser, Changchun High

Northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect recorded outflows of USD 114m last week. We highlight outflows from Sanhua, Baoshan Iron, Sungrow, Han's...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

Cali’s core product will face fierce competition,uncertain market acceptance and negative policy impact. The pipeline isn't rich with slow...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Innovent Is Not Optional but Necessary in Portfolio

Innovent would transform from a biotech to biopharma. It is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety than Hengrui. Its...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Placement- Junshi Is Having a Hard Time, with Lower than Expected Returns

Junshi's Achilles heel is lack of cash and is in difficult time. PD-1/COVID-19 products can't relieve cashflow pressure.The uncertain outlook/macro...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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