HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. </li>
<li>For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.</li>
<li>In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. 
For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.


China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 82.7% as of Aug 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, materials and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare Ict, China Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 82.7% as of Aug 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, materials and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare Ict, China Telecom.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 14th): Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare Ict

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD357,520m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD357,520m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC

<ul>
<li>Policies will determine the development direction of the industry, which would then determine the profit model of companies. Companies that align with policy direction would outperform in the coming cycle.</li>
<li>The prosperity of the industry would determine the development trend of companies. For China healthcare, without a significant policy shift, it would be difficult for industry beta to emerge.</li>
<li>Domestic companies cannot achieve successful commercialization/internationalization mainly because they don’t have excellent enough products. It must be innovation that keeps companies alive and then thrive, rather than relying on policy changes.</li>
</ul>


Policies will determine the development direction of the industry, which would then determine the profit model of companies. Companies that align with policy direction would outperform in the coming cycle.
The prosperity of the industry would determine the development trend of companies. For China healthcare, without a significant policy shift, it would be difficult for industry beta to emerge.
Domestic companies cannot achieve successful commercialization/internationalization mainly because they don’t have excellent enough products. It must be innovation that keeps companies alive and then thrive, rather than relying on policy changes.


The Cyclicality of China Healthcare - Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)

China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

The money saved in some drugs due to VBP will help expand the sales of other drugs,which we call “payment transfer”.Before being pessimistic about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 14th): Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare Ict

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Cyclicality of China Healthcare - Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

Without industry beta, China healthcare companies still have opportunity to achieve countercyclical breakthrough.Investors need to be in line with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

The money saved in some drugs due to VBP will help expand the sales of other drugs,which we call “payment transfer”.Before being pessimistic about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 14th): Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare Ict

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Muyuan Foods Group Co Ltd-H, Innocare Pharma Ltd-H, Luxshare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Cyclicality of China Healthcare - Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

Without industry beta, China healthcare companies still have opportunity to achieve countercyclical breakthrough.Investors need to be in line with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research