Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Max Healthcare Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 in the September 2025 rebal.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 in the September 2025 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Shyam Metalics & Energy / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.</li>
<li>The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.</li>
<li>With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.</li>
</ul>


Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.


Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.</li>
<li>The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.</li>
<li>We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. </li>
</ul>


Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 


Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

<ul>
<li>FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.</li>
<li>Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.</li>
<li>Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.</li>
</ul>


FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.


Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months</li>
<li>The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.</li>
<li>With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.</li>
</ul>


The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.


The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas

There are multiple changes to our expected ADDs and expected DELs lists for NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 since the last time we published an insight...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

Shyam Metalics posts strong FY25 results, plans to double capacity by FY27 with focus on high-margin segments, showcasing growth potential and...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas

There are multiple changes to our expected ADDs and expected DELs lists for NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 since the last time we published an insight...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

​Shyam Metalics posts strong FY25 results, plans to double capacity by FY27 with focus on high-margin segments, showcasing growth potential and...

Rahul Jain

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

​Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

​FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

​Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Shyam Metalics posts strong FY25 results, plans to double capacity by FY27 with focus on high-margin segments, showcasing growth potential and...

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...