Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.</li>
<li>Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.</li>
<li>Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.</li>
</ul>


Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.
Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.
Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.


Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

<ul>
<li>India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.</li>
<li>The move supports domestic steelmakers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.</li>
<li>Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.</li>
</ul>


India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.
The move supports domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.
Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.


India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepsico-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4967:1" rel="noopener">Pepsico Inc (PEP US)</a> plans to scale its snacks and food business in India by customizing products for regional tastes and promoting innovation.</li>
<li>India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, driven by reforms, consumption, and infrastructure growth.</li>
<li>India finalizes a $7.6 billion deal for 26 Rafale M jets, boosting naval air power and strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence..</li>
</ul>



Pepsico Inc (PEP US) plans to scale its snacks and food business in India by customizing products for regional tastes and promoting innovation.
India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, driven by reforms, consumption, and infrastructure growth.
India finalizes a $7.6 billion deal for 26 Rafale M jets, boosting naval air power and strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence..


#121 India Insight: PepsiCo Expands, Rafale Boost for Navy, India to Be 3rd Largest Economy

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

Promoters increased stakes in key large-cap Indian stocks in March'25, signaling strong conviction. Focus on financials, real estate, and chemicals...

Sreemant Dudhoria

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

#121 India Insight: PepsiCo Expands, Rafale Boost for Navy, India to Be 3rd Largest Economy

Pepsico Inc aims to expand in India by tailoring products to local preferences and focusing on innovation, as the country's economy grows and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

Promoters increased stakes in key large-cap Indian stocks in March'25, signaling strong conviction. Focus on financials, real estate, and chemicals...

Sreemant Dudhoria

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

​India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

#121 India Insight: PepsiCo Expands, Rafale Boost for Navy, India to Be 3rd Largest Economy

​Pepsico Inc aims to expand in India by tailoring products to local preferences and focusing on innovation, as the country's economy grows and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Pepsico Inc aims to expand in India by tailoring products to local preferences and focusing on innovation, as the country's economy grows and...