Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While we have been sharing monthly updates on insider buying activity in India,this time,we have taken a detour to publish it mid-month.The reason - steep decline in Indian equity market.</li>
<li>Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.</li>
<li>As there are many companies (34 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading. This is part 1 of the update.</li>
</ul>


While we have been sharing monthly updates on insider buying activity in India,this time,we have taken a detour to publish it mid-month.The reason - steep decline in Indian equity market.
Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
As there are many companies (34 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading. This is part 1 of the update.


Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-special-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. 
The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   


Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the close on 20 December.</li>
<li>This is the first of many potential inclusions for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato</a> in local indices over the next few months and is due to inclusion of the stock in the F&amp;O segment.</li>
<li>Futures and options in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> start trading from the open on 29 November. Expect increased volatility in the short-term and an increase in traded volumes.</li>
</ul>



Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will replace JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) in the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the close on 20 December.
This is the first of many potential inclusions for Zomato in local indices over the next few months and is due to inclusion of the stock in the F&amp;O segment.
Futures and options in Zomato (ZOMATO IN) start trading from the open on 29 November. Expect increased volatility in the short-term and an increase in traded volumes.


SENSEX Index Rebalance: F&O Inclusion Brings First of Many Index Inclusions for Zomato

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance: F&O Inclusion Brings First of Many Index Inclusions for Zomato

Zomato will replace JSW Steel in the Sensex after close on 20 Dec. Zomato is also expected to be added to other indices over the next few months....

Brian Freitas

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

​Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance: F&O Inclusion Brings First of Many Index Inclusions for Zomato

Zomato will replace JSW Steel in the Sensex after close on 20 Dec. Zomato is also expected to be added to other indices over the next few months....

Brian Freitas

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.