Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes under both the existing methodology and the proposed new methodology.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for index changes under both the existing methodology and the proposed new methodology.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: 5 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY Next 50 Unless the Methodology Changes

The index changes for the NIFTY index for September 2023 could be announced in the next couple of weeks. This might be a good time to revisit our...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

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