Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.</li>
<li>Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.</li>
<li>Outperformance to continue? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a>have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.</li>
</ul>


On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.
Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.
Outperformance to continue? JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN),Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) ,Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.


Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelormittal-sa-8b816bb6-eb73-416f-a30a-56f93d1deb03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38577:1" rel="noopener">ArcelorMittal (MT US)</a> reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.</li>
<li>Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. </li>
<li>Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> </li>
</ul>



ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) 


ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. This is Part-3 of the series,providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.</li>
<li>Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.</li>
<li>As there are many companies with insider-buying this week (50 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading.</li>
</ul>


Following our mid-month insider-buying report from last week, number of buying transactions has increased further. This is Part-3 of the series,providing an update on insider-buying activity from just last week.
Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
As there are many companies with insider-buying this week (50 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading.


Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3

<ul>
<li>While we have been sharing monthly updates on insider buying activity in India,this time,we have taken a detour to publish it mid-month.The reason - steep decline in Indian equity market.</li>
<li>Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.</li>
<li>As there are many companies (34 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading. This is part 1 of the update.</li>
</ul>


While we have been sharing monthly updates on insider buying activity in India,this time,we have taken a detour to publish it mid-month.The reason - steep decline in Indian equity market.
Given this sharp decline in mid and small-cap stocks, there has been a notable increase in insider buying activity in recent weeks.
As there are many companies (34 in total), we have divided this update into two parts for ease of reading. This is part 1 of the update.


Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-special-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. 
The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   


Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3

Insider buying activity in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks has increased, with 50 companies reporting transactions this week.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

​India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

​ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 3

​Insider buying activity in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks has increased, with 50 companies reporting transactions this week.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Mid-Month Insider Buying Activity Update – Part 1

​Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Insider buying activity in mid and small-cap Indian listed stocks has increased, with 50 companies reporting transactions this week.

Insider buying activity in Indian mid and small-cap stocks has increased due to steep decline in equity market, prompting a mid-month update.