Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a revised TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li>
<li>In Q4FY23, JKCE reported 16% YoY consolidated volume growth led by the fast ramp-up of Panna IU in the central region</li>
<li>Consolidated unitary EBITDA recovered ~INR 150/MT QoQ on fuel cost reduction and op-lev gains</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a revised TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)
In Q4FY23, JKCE reported 16% YoY consolidated volume growth led by the fast ramp-up of Panna IU in the central region
Consolidated unitary EBITDA recovered ~INR 150/MT QoQ on fuel cost reduction and op-lev gains

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, KNR Constructions, NOCIL, Heidelberg Cement, Deccan Cements

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>JKCL reported better operating performance during the quarter owing to higher volume and better realization.</li><li>Its Volume/Revenue grew by 16%/18% YoY (above expectation) YoY.</li><li>However, its EBITDA (above expectation), and APAT (below expectation) de-grew by 9%/44% on the back of higher power/fuel cost which was up 28% on a tonne basis at Rs1,659 YoY and higher interest charges.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JKCL reported better operating performance during the quarter owing to higher volume and better realization.Its Volume/Revenue grew by 16%/18% YoY (above expectation) YoY.However, its EBITDA (above expectation), and APAT (below expectation) de-grew by 9%/44% on the back of higher power/fuel cost which was up 28% on a tonne basis at Rs1,659 YoY and higher interest charges.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JK Cements Limited - Robust Volume Growth; Cost Pressure To Ease

<ul><li>We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23</li><li>We expect strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp., JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQ</li><li>We expect volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23We expect strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp., JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQWe expect volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Strong Demand, Fuel Pressure Easing Out

<ul><li>The company recently expanded its grey cement capacity by 4 mtpa in the demand-accretive central India region.</li><li>Moreover, it is adding another 2 mtpa capacity by debottlenecking existing plants, which will take the total grey cement capacity to 20.7 mtpa and drive the company’s volume growth in FY24.</li><li>We expect the company to post volume growth of 14% CAGR over FY22-24E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company recently expanded its grey cement capacity by 4 mtpa in the demand-accretive central India region.Moreover, it is adding another 2 mtpa capacity by debottlenecking existing plants, which will take the total grey cement capacity to 20.7 mtpa and drive the company’s volume growth in FY24.We expect the company to post volume growth of 14% CAGR over FY22-24E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JK Cements Limited - Higher Costs Offset Volume Growth; Maintain BUY!

India

JK Cement Limited produces and manufactures Portland and White cement products.

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JK Cement Ltd (JKCE IN)

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, KNR Constructions, NOCIL, Heidelberg Cement, Deccan Cements

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a revised TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

JK Cements Limited - Robust Volume Growth; Cost Pressure To Ease

JKCL reported better operating performance during the quarter owing to higher volume and better realization. Its Volume/Revenue grew by 16%/18% YoY...

Axis Direct

Cement - Strong Demand, Fuel Pressure Easing Out

We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver strong 9/14% YoY/QoQ volume growth (four-year CAGR: 7%) in Q4FY23

HDFC Securities

JK Cements Limited - Higher Costs Offset Volume Growth; Maintain BUY!

The company recently expanded its grey cement capacity by 4 mtpa in the demand-accretive central India region. Moreover, it is adding another 2...

Axis Direct

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