Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>JMT reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt242mn (–46.2% YoY, –6.3% QoQ), pressured by higher ECL provisions due to weak cash collection.</li><li>Cash collection fell (–12% YoY, –4% QoQ), reflecting a sluggish recovery among vulnerable households.</li><li>Profit contribution from JV JKAMC also weakened in line with JMT, coming in at Bt50mn (–60.5% YoY, –25% QoQ), as its cash collection remained soft (–9% YoY, –9% QoQ).</li></ul>

JMT reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt242mn (–46.2% YoY, –6.3% QoQ), pressured by higher ECL provisions due to weak cash collection.Cash collection fell (–12% YoY, –4% QoQ), reflecting a sluggish recovery among vulnerable households.Profit contribution from JV JKAMC also weakened in line with JMT, coming in at Bt50mn (–60.5% YoY, –25% QoQ), as its cash collection remained soft (–9% YoY, –9% QoQ).

JMT NETWORK SERVICES Plc. (JMT): 3Q25 Earnings Weak...

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new fair value of Bt11.80 (from Bt12.00), reflecting i) a downward revision of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts, and ii) an offsetting reduction in the required return to 7.6% (from 8.8%) following a reassessment of the beta, based on our house view’s updated macro assumptions: Rf at 1.47% and MRP at 5.26% (previously 1.48% and 6.83%).</li><li>JMT reported a net profit of Bt247mn in 2Q25, down 32.7% YoY and 25.2% QoQ, due to higher provisions reflecting weaker debt collection and softer profit contribution from the JKAMC joint venture.</li><li>We revise down our net profit forecasts for 2025-27E by around 15-16%, reflecting an unfavorable economic outlook, which is expected to challenge cash collections and accelerate ECL provisioning.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new fair value of Bt11.80 (from Bt12.00), reflecting i) a downward revision of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts, and ii) an offsetting reduction in the required return to 7.6% (from 8.8%) following a reassessment of the beta, based on our house view’s updated macro assumptions: Rf at 1.47% and MRP at 5.26% (previously 1.48% and 6.83%).JMT reported a net profit of Bt247mn in 2Q25, down 32.7% YoY and 25.2% QoQ, due to higher provisions reflecting weaker debt collection and softer profit contribution from the JKAMC joint venture.We revise down our net profit forecasts for 2025-27E by around 15-16%, reflecting an unfavorable economic outlook, which is expected to challenge cash collections and accelerate ECL provisioning.

JMT NETWORK SERVICES Plc. (JMT): Still-Weak 2Q25 Earnings And Accelerating Provisions

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral with a new fair value of Bt12.00 (from Outperform and Bt22.80).</li><li>The downward revision in the fair value reflects: i) a cut in the 2024-2027E earnings forecasts; and ii) a higher required return of 8.8% (up from 5.3%), based on new macroeconomic assumptions: a risk-free rate (Rf) of 2.07% and market risk premium (MRP) of 5.58% (previously 2.27% and 4.43%, respectively).</li><li>Long-term growth is expected to be below the industry average, with weak debt collection leading to higher provisions and a slow recovery in the gross margin</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral with a new fair value of Bt12.00 (from Outperform and Bt22.80).The downward revision in the fair value reflects: i) a cut in the 2024-2027E earnings forecasts; and ii) a higher required return of 8.8% (up from 5.3%), based on new macroeconomic assumptions: a risk-free rate (Rf) of 2.07% and market risk premium (MRP) of 5.58% (previously 2.27% and 4.43%, respectively).Long-term growth is expected to be below the industry average, with weak debt collection leading to higher provisions and a slow recovery in the gross margin

JMT Network Services - Earnings Revised Down to Reflect Elevated Provisions and Expenses

<ul><li>We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revising the earnings forecasts, as the 1Q25 profit was weak amid an incomplete economic recovery.</li><li>This led to a decline in cash collection, prompting higher provisions and increased debt collection expenses.</li><li>JMT reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt330mn (-21.1% YoY, -17.5% QoQ), pressured by weaker debt collection, declining revenue, a narrower gross margin, and a sharp increase in provisions.</li></ul>

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revising the earnings forecasts, as the 1Q25 profit was weak amid an incomplete economic recovery.This led to a decline in cash collection, prompting higher provisions and increased debt collection expenses.JMT reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt330mn (-21.1% YoY, -17.5% QoQ), pressured by weaker debt collection, declining revenue, a narrower gross margin, and a sharp increase in provisions.

Jmt Network Services - Soft 1Q25 Earnings in Almost All Dimensions

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating with a buy recommendation based on the fundamentals, as the stock price has +62% upside to the fair value (FV) of Bt22.80 (based on a required return of 5.3%).</li><li>In addition, the downside risk is limited from the tactical perspective.</li><li>Profit for 2025-26E is expected to grow at an average of 16% per year, driven by a reduction in allowance expenses (ECL), although this growth remains below the industry average.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating with a buy recommendation based on the fundamentals, as the stock price has +62% upside to the fair value (FV) of Bt22.80 (based on a required return of 5.3%).In addition, the downside risk is limited from the tactical perspective.Profit for 2025-26E is expected to grow at an average of 16% per year, driven by a reduction in allowance expenses (ECL), although this growth remains below the industry average.

JMT Network Services - Cash Collection Improved QoQ, but Expenses Pressured Earnings

Thailand

JMT Network Services PCL is involved in the debt collection business in Thailand.

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JMT Network Services (JMT TB)

JMT NETWORK SERVICES Plc. (JMT): 3Q25 Earnings Weak...

JMT reported a 3Q25 net profit of Bt242mn (–46.2% YoY, –6.3% QoQ), pressured by higher ECL provisions due to weak cash collection.

Krungthai XSpring

JMT NETWORK SERVICES Plc. (JMT): Still-Weak 2Q25 Earnings And Accelerating Provisions

We revise down our net profit forecasts for 2025-27E by around 15-16%, reflecting an unfavorable economic outlook, which is expected to challenge...

Krungthai XSpring

JMT Network Services - Earnings Revised Down to Reflect Elevated Provisions and Expenses

Long-term growth is expected to be below the industry average, with weak debt collection leading to higher provisions and a slow recovery in the...

Krungthai XSpring

Jmt Network Services - Soft 1Q25 Earnings in Almost All Dimensions

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revising the earnings forecasts, as the 1Q25 profit was weak amid an incomplete economic recovery.

Krungthai XSpring

JMT Network Services - Cash Collection Improved QoQ, but Expenses Pressured Earnings

We maintain our Outperform rating with a buy recommendation based on the fundamentals, as the stock price has +62% upside to the fair value (FV) of...

Krungthai XSpring

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