IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a> announced a voluntary conditional offer from the Cheng Yu Tung family at HK$1.88 per share, an 18.2% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>The VGO is conditional on the offeror and concert parties holding more than 50% of the voting rights (currently own 24.57%). The VGO price is underwhelming.</li>
<li>David Webb’s (the retail activist investor) presence on the shareholder register likely deterred a privatisation bid. We think there is a 50% chance that the VGO becomes unconditional.  </li>
</ul>



Giordano International (709 HK) announced a voluntary conditional offer from the Cheng Yu Tung family at HK$1.88 per share, an 18.2% premium to the undisturbed price.  
The VGO is conditional on the offeror and concert parties holding more than 50% of the voting rights (currently own 24.57%). The VGO price is underwhelming.
David Webb’s (the retail activist investor) presence on the shareholder register likely deterred a privatisation bid. We think there is a 50% chance that the VGO becomes unconditional.  


Giordano’s Conditional Offer at HK$1.88

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a> entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 8 June.  </li>
<li>It is likely that the family of Cheng Yu Tung (the largest shareholder with a 24.4% stake) could either agree to sell into the offer or roll over its shares.</li>
<li>The median trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of the precedent transactions is 5.1x, implying a privatisation price of at least HK$2.46 per share.</li>
</ul>



Giordano International (709 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 8 June.  
It is likely that the family of Cheng Yu Tung (the largest shareholder with a 24.4% stake) could either agree to sell into the offer or roll over its shares.
The median trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of the precedent transactions is 5.1x, implying a privatisation price of at least HK$2.46 per share.


Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I think most (value) investors go through four stages: Stage 0: Buy stuff that goes up. Especially when a lot of people around you get rich from doing it.</li>
<li>Stage 1: Invest in the future! Buy into some fancy exciting new technology that will become big some day! The Cathie Wood stage. Usually stage 1 and stage 0 go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Stage 2: Buy at low PE multiples. Some are smart and skip the first two. This stage is not bad, it should lead to slight outperformance. Can be dangerous without wide diversification as a lot of them are value traps.</li>
</ul>


I think most (value) investors go through four stages: Stage 0: Buy stuff that goes up. Especially when a lot of people around you get rich from doing it.
Stage 1: Invest in the future! Buy into some fancy exciting new technology that will become big some day! The Cathie Wood stage. Usually stage 1 and stage 0 go hand in hand.
Stage 2: Buy at low PE multiples. Some are smart and skip the first two. This stage is not bad, it should lead to slight outperformance. Can be dangerous without wide diversification as a lot of them are value traps.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

In this weeks recap, we look at:<ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the spread on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> deal and potential index flows</li>
<li>the listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and the potential Fast Entry into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances</li>
</ul>There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US)</a>.

In this weeks recap, we look at:
the Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 
the spread on the Keppel Corp (KEP SP) / Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) deal and potential index flows
the listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and the potential Fast Entry into the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) 
the potential changes to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances
There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US). 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

Orient Overseas (International) / Index Rebalance

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June.The December review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 July to 30 September and meet the criteria for joining the index.We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brii-biosciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33014:1" rel="noopener">Brii Biosciences (2137 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's International Holdings (9869 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sce-intelligent-commercial-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33500:1" rel="noopener">SCE Intelligent Commercial Management (606 HK)</a> to be included in the index at the close of trading on 3 December.For the regular rebalance in March 2022, we see 17 potential inclusions to the index and 4 potential deletions. There are 4 stocks that are close adds and 5 that are close deletes.<div>Although there are no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. There is pre-positioning in the stocks in the lead up to the announcement and prior to the stocks being open for purchase by mainland investors.</div>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June.The December review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 July to 30 September and meet the criteria for joining the index.We expect Brii Biosciences (2137 HK), Helen's International Holdings (9869 HK), Medlive Technology (2192 HK), Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK) and SCE Intelligent Commercial Management (606 HK) to be included in the index at the close of trading on 3 December.For the regular rebalance in March 2022, we see 17 potential inclusions to the index and 4 potential deletions. There are 4 stocks that are close adds and 5 that are close deletes.Although there are no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. There is pre-positioning in the stocks in the lead up to the announcement and prior to the stocks being open for purchase by mainland investors.

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December and March

China

JNBY Design is a fashion and lifestyle group that designs, markets, retails, and sells fashion apparel, accessory products, and household goods. The company offers contemporary apparel, footwear, and accessories for women, men, and children, along with household products under brands like JNBY, CROQUIS, jnby by JNBY, LESS, POMME DE TERRE, and JNBYHOME. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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JNBY Design (3306 HK)

Giordano’s Conditional Offer at HK$1.88

We think there is a 50% chance that the VGO meets the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. Buy up to HK$1.74 per share, which implies a 50% deal...

Arun George

Giordano's Possible Privatisation Price

The median trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of the precedent transactions is 5.1x, implying a privatisation price of at least HK$2.46 per share.

Arun George

Investing in HK Stocks

If you invest in Western markets this would be enough, but not in Asian markets where the trust factor is a lot lower, and where ownership is more...

Turtles all the way down

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering the index rebalance space in Asia as well as announcements that could result in index changes. We also look...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December and March

There could be 5 adds to the HSCI in December. In March, there could be 17 adds and 4 deletes. There will be pre-positioning on the inclusions...

Brian Freitas

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