IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

WuXi XDC Cayman  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK)</a>, a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116331" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on margins on a downward trend, large customer concentration, high related party transactions and volatile FCF generation.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK), a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.
In WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on margins on a downward trend, large customer concentration, high related party transactions and volatile FCF generation.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK)</a>, a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>WuXi XDC ranked No. 2 globally and No. 1 in China among CRDMO for antibody-drug conjugates and other bioconjugates in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on large addressable markets, market share gains, fast-paced revenue growth, strong revenue visibility, a solid balance sheet and ambitious capacity expansion plans.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK), a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   
WuXi XDC ranked No. 2 globally and No. 1 in China among CRDMO for antibody-drug conjugates and other bioconjugates in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.
The bull case rests on large addressable markets, market share gains, fast-paced revenue growth, strong revenue visibility, a solid balance sheet and ambitious capacity expansion plans.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Joinn Laboratories China  Lt / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1H23 bottom-line miss. Joinn reported 1H23 revenue of RMB1,012mn, up 30% YoY, and attributable net income of RMB91mn, down 76% YoY.</li><li>In 1H23, revenue accounted for 34% of our full-year estimate, in-line with the historical average, while attributable net income represented 22% of our full-year estimate, lower than the historical average which was primarily due to the RMB199mn fair values loss from biological assets.</li><li>However, the Company’s laboratory services (core business) recorded a net profit of RMB195mn in 1H23, up 31% YoY, indicating a healthy business momentum amid the challenging macro environment in both domestic and international markets. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H23 bottom-line miss. Joinn reported 1H23 revenue of RMB1,012mn, up 30% YoY, and attributable net income of RMB91mn, down 76% YoY.In 1H23, revenue accounted for 34% of our full-year estimate, in-line with the historical average, while attributable net income represented 22% of our full-year estimate, lower than the historical average which was primarily due to the RMB199mn fair values loss from biological assets.However, the Company’s laboratory services (core business) recorded a net profit of RMB195mn in 1H23, up 31% YoY, indicating a healthy business momentum amid the challenging macro environment in both domestic and international markets. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Joinn Laboratories (6127 HK) – New Orders Slightly Recovered in 2Q23

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The market’s reaction to WuXi AppTec's 23H1 report was positive due to some improvements in performance, but we don’t think WuXi AppTec has reversed its predicament completely if look closely.</li>
<li>We deep dive the challenges/risks in macro environment faced by US/Europe. The orders WuXi AppTec received from MNCs can’t guarantee future growth momentum if the US cannot achieve "soft landing".</li>
<li>We advise investors not to be blinded by the high growth of CXO in the past since the prosperity of CXO industry may face continuous downward pressure in the future.</li>
</ul>


The market’s reaction to WuXi AppTec's 23H1 report was positive due to some improvements in performance, but we don’t think WuXi AppTec has reversed its predicament completely if look closely.
We deep dive the challenges/risks in macro environment faced by US/Europe. The orders WuXi AppTec received from MNCs can’t guarantee future growth momentum if the US cannot achieve "soft landing".
We advise investors not to be blinded by the high growth of CXO in the past since the prosperity of CXO industry may face continuous downward pressure in the future.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 23H1 - Is It Time to Start Being Optimistic?

<ul>
<li>It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.</li>
<li>Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.</li>
<li>We are concerned about WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it's hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.</li>
</ul>


It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.
Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.
We are concerned about WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it's hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.


WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 - The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

China

Joinn Laboratories (China) Co., Ltd. operates as a medicines development company. The Company offers drug development, pharmaceutical analysis, pharmacologic testing, and other related services. Joinn Laboratories (China) also provides pesticide and medical device safety evaluation services.

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Joinn Laboratories China Lt (6127 HK)

WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on margins on a downward trend, large customer concentration, high related party transactions and volatile FCF generation.

Arun George

WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on large addressable markets, market share gains, fast-paced revenue growth, strong revenue visibility, a solid balance sheet...

Arun George

Joinn Laboratories (6127 HK) – New Orders Slightly Recovered in 2Q23

1H23 bottom-line miss. Joinn reported 1H23 revenue of RMB1,012mn, up 30% YoY, and attributable net income of RMB91mn, down 76% YoY.

CMB International

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 23H1 - Is It Time to Start Being Optimistic?

WuXi AppTec's 23H1 results improved, but there're still risks haven't been fully released. If shareholders continue to reduce their holdings, why...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 - The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

In this insight last year, we expressed our concerns on WuXi AppTec's performance in 2023, when we think could be the performance low point. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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