Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last October, a global index provider announced that Vietnam would be added to their index in September 2026 as long as progress was made on one key issue.</li>
<li>On 2 February, the Ministry of Finance issued a circular that allows foreign investors to place orders through global brokers, in addition to trading through local brokers.</li>
<li>That should clear the way for inclusion of Vietnam stocks in the global index in September. Inclusion should take place in more than 1 tranche to minimise market impact.</li>
</ul>


Last October, a global index provider announced that Vietnam would be added to their index in September 2026 as long as progress was made on one key issue.
On 2 February, the Ministry of Finance issued a circular that allows foreign investors to place orders through global brokers, in addition to trading through local brokers.
That should clear the way for inclusion of Vietnam stocks in the global index in September. Inclusion should take place in more than 1 tranche to minimise market impact.


Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion Probability Jumps; Updated Names & Flows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

<ul>
<li>Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.</li>
</ul>


Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baf-vietnam-agriculture-joint-stock-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45291" rel="noopener">BAF Vietnam Agriculture (BAF VN)</a> will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinhomes-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27079:1" rel="noopener">Vinhomes (VHM VN)</a> stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.</li>
</ul>



BAF Vietnam Agriculture (BAF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.

Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN) stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

<ul>
<li>Sai Gon VRG Investment Corporation (SIP VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$23m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vix-securities-joint-stock-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35885:1" rel="noopener">VIX Securities (VIX VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-dairy-products-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19635:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoa-phat-group-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5813:1" rel="noopener">Hoa Phat Group Jsc (HPG VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsc-bank-for-foreign-trade-of-vietnam-vietcombank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23054:1" rel="noopener">Vietcombank (VCB VN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Sai Gon VRG Investment Corporation (SIP VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$23m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
The largest passive inflows will be in VIX Securities (VIX VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), Hoa Phat Group Jsc (HPG VN) and Vietcombank (VCB VN). 


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Float & Capping Changes

Vietnam

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, known as Vietcombank, is a major commercial bank in Vietnam offering a wide range of products and services, including traditional banking activities like capital management, credit provision, and project financing, as well as modern services such as foreign exchange, derivatives, card services, and digital banking. It accepts deposits from organizations and individuals, provides various loans, and offers investment and savings insurance. The company is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam, and was founded on April 1, 1963.

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Vietcombank (VCB VN)

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion Probability Jumps; Updated Names & Flows

The MoF approval for international investors to place orders through global brokers resolves the main hurdle for global index inclusion. Passives...

Brian Freitas

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

There are 3 adds for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. Vietnam stocks...

Brian Freitas

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

One add and large capping changes result in one-way turnover of 9% and a round-trip trade of US$74m. Vingroup and Vinhomes stock prices have soared...

Brian Freitas

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Float & Capping Changes

Saigon Vrg Investment will be added to the index at the close 20 December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.1% and that results in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

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