Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Two US banks saw more than 80% of their net interest income delta erased by credit costs</li>
<li>Many US banks are seeing sharply higher credit costs in 4Q22 from reversals a year ago</li>
<li>Loan growth is decelerating in 4Q22 compared with 3Q22, not a positive outlook</li>
</ul>


Two US banks saw more than 80% of their net interest income delta erased by credit costs
Many US banks are seeing sharply higher credit costs in 4Q22 from reversals a year ago
Loan growth is decelerating in 4Q22 compared with 3Q22, not a positive outlook


Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

<ul><li>SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process is continuously evolving.</li><li>Despite the market downturn our cumulative redemptions are a mere basis points of the fund.</li><li>We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak; and then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.</li><li>With a more concentrated portfolio of businesses, portfolio volatility can be higher, but volatility can be compensated with higher returns.</li><li>We have no conviction about the direction of the market - we don’t believe one can consistently predict this with high accuracy.</li></ul>

SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process is continuously evolving.Despite the market downturn our cumulative redemptions are a mere basis points of the fund.We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak; and then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.With a more concentrated portfolio of businesses, portfolio volatility can be higher, but volatility can be compensated with higher returns.We have no conviction about the direction of the market - we don’t believe one can consistently predict this with high accuracy.

SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We analyse the upcoming Banking names that are reporting, to screen for trade opportunites in the derivatives market</li>
<li>We use a mixture of short term expiries to extracr the expected moves for each stock on earnings</li>
<li>We identify potential trades based on the expected moves and stock view</li>
</ul>


We analyse the upcoming Banking names that are reporting, to screen for trade opportunites in the derivatives market
We use a mixture of short term expiries to extracr the expected moves for each stock on earnings
We identify potential trades based on the expected moves and stock view


EQD | C,JPM,MS,WFC,BAC,GS: What Does the Options Market Expect for Earnings?

<ul><li>We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will determine the portfolio’s return (and its risk).</li><li>Most of our work is devoted to seeking out individual investment opportunities and analyzing them rather than to macroeconomic forecasting.</li><li>As we expected, the need for capital investment over the long term has been, and will likely remain, higher than we anticipated.</li></ul>

We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will determine the portfolio’s return (and its risk).Most of our work is devoted to seeking out individual investment opportunities and analyzing them rather than to macroeconomic forecasting.As we expected, the need for capital investment over the long term has been, and will likely remain, higher than we anticipated.

Vltava Fund Q3 2022 Letter To Shareholders

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMTD Digital is the biggest bubble of 2022, which is ready to pop. AMTD Digital provides digital solutions platform in Asia.</li>
<li>AMTD Digital currently has a market cap of US$371 billion (US$2,002 per ADS share) (as of 1:40PM NYC time). The company's market cap is more than JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</li>
<li>No doubt, AMTD Digital is the biggest bubble in 2022 and the bursting of this huge bubble will also devastate (mostly) retail investors in the US. </li>
</ul>


AMTD Digital is the biggest bubble of 2022, which is ready to pop. AMTD Digital provides digital solutions platform in Asia.
AMTD Digital currently has a market cap of US$371 billion (US$2,002 per ADS share) (as of 1:40PM NYC time). The company's market cap is more than JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.
No doubt, AMTD Digital is the biggest bubble in 2022 and the bursting of this huge bubble will also devastate (mostly) retail investors in the US. 


United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks - Slow Going

US banks are seeing a huge increase in their credit costs in 4Q22 and this is wiping out substantially the increase in net interest income. Loan...

Daniel Tabbush

SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter

SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process...

Fund Newsletters

EQD | C,JPM,MS,WFC,BAC,GS: What Does the Options Market Expect for Earnings?

We look to the options market to extract expected earnings moves for the big US Investment Banks, and use this information to suggest some...

Simon Harris

Vltava Fund Q3 2022 Letter To Shareholders

We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will...

Fund Newsletters

AMTD Digital: The Biggest Bubble in 2022

AMTD Digital is the biggest bubble of 2022, which is ready to pop. AMTD Digital provides digital solutions platform in Asia.

Douglas Kim

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