Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!</li><li>We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.</li><li>First things first. <span style="font-weight: 400;">The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. </span></li></ul>

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.First things first. The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. 

Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

<ul>
<li>I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow.</li>
<li>The macro environment never fails to entertain.</li>
<li>Here is why the ECB will likely pause from here, while European inflation could reach target already by September/October.</li>
</ul>


I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow.
The macro environment never fails to entertain.
Here is why the ECB will likely pause from here, while European inflation could reach target already by September/October.


Euro Area Watch: 7 Charts on the ECB and EUR-Inflation

<ul><li>It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.</li><li>Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.</li><li>But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.</li></ul>

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.</li><li>In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.</li><li>Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.</li></ul>

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise! We have thankfully made very decent returns through a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

Euro Area Watch: 7 Charts on the ECB and EUR-Inflation

I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow. The macro...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we...

Steno Research

Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will...

Steno Research

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