Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price action</li><li>Discussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flows</li><li>Expectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strength</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MoF intervention in Japan estimated at 3.5 trillion yen, impacting yen price actionDiscussion on GPIF's asset allocation and potential repatriation flowsExpectation for increase in domestic bond weight in GPIF's portfolio, impacting yen strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: On Japan Intervention/ GPIF, Dollar Supports and European Data

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.</li><li>This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.</li><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.</li></ul>

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

<ul><li>The yen has been the worst performing currency this year, but has been trading in a tight range around 150 against the dollar.</li><li>Recent developments suggest the Bank of Japan may make policy changes in March or April, possibly exiting negative rates.</li><li>Market may be getting ahead of itself with expectations for a hawkish shift from the BOJ, potentially leading to short-lived movements in the dollar-yen pair.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The yen has been the worst performing currency this year, but has been trading in a tight range around 150 against the dollar.Recent developments suggest the Bank of Japan may make policy changes in March or April, possibly exiting negative rates.Market may be getting ahead of itself with expectations for a hawkish shift from the BOJ, potentially leading to short-lived movements in the dollar-yen pair.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.</li>
<li>While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.</li>
<li>The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.</li>
</ul>


As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.
While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.
The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it</li>
<li>The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term</li>
<li>In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend</li>
</ul>


The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it
The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term
In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Global FX: On Japan Intervention/ GPIF, Dollar Supports and European Data

The Ministry of Finance intervened in the yen market, leading to significant capital outflows from Japan and potential repatriation flows due to...

At Any Rate

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate...

Steno Research

Global FX & Economics: Not safe yet

The Japanese yen has been the worst performing currency this year, with potential downside risks for the dollar yen pair due to stretched...

At Any Rate

USDJPY - An Opportunistic Currency Trade

New Currency Trade Idea. We are initiating an opportunistic long position in the Japanese Yen against the US dollar as the USDJPY exchange rate...

Jeroen Blokland

USDJPY Disconnect

The price action on USDJPY & the DXY Index as well as short term developments in the fixed income markets are beginning to warn of a stretched USD...

Shyam Devani

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