Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.</li>
<li>There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.</li>
<li>Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas</li>
</ul>


This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.
There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.
Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Yen depreciated about 13% vs Dollar in 12 months to 4 January but has since rebounded about 1% in NEER terms. We expect trade deficit to stabilise in coming months. </li>
<li>“Safe-Haven” Yen also driven by capital outflows and global sentiment, as proxied by S&amp;P 500. But perception that Yen is funding currency for EM has not held true since mid-2020.</li>
<li>Our near-term scenario, premised on lower US equities, is of modest Yen NEER appreciation. Monthly seasonality has historically been negligible in February.</li>
</ul>


Yen depreciated about 13% vs Dollar in 12 months to 4 January but has since rebounded about 1% in NEER terms. We expect trade deficit to stabilise in coming months. 
“Safe-Haven” Yen also driven by capital outflows and global sentiment, as proxied by S&amp;P 500. But perception that Yen is funding currency for EM has not held true since mid-2020.
Our near-term scenario, premised on lower US equities, is of modest Yen NEER appreciation. Monthly seasonality has historically been negligible in February.


<ul>
<li>Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble</li>
<li>This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries</li>
<li>Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive</li>
</ul>


Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble
This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries
Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive


Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD domino decline gaining traction with the Euro above our 1.1610 pivot barrier. USD weakness (DXY 94.50 top call) leading a peak in the 5yr and 10yr yield. USD/JPY next line at the key 114.50 major top barrier.The Euro is the latest currency to make a move. The dollar started its descent in August/September vs commodity currencies and rolled into stronger EM FX and more recently marked tops in the USD/KRW and USD/THB.Yield peak targets outlined that will provide fuel for a weaker USD, stronger metals and a short financials pair versus sectors that benefit from a yield backfill.

USD domino decline gaining traction with the Euro above our 1.1610 pivot barrier. USD weakness (DXY 94.50 top call) leading a peak in the 5yr and 10yr yield. USD/JPY next line at the key 114.50 major top barrier.The Euro is the latest currency to make a move. The dollar started its descent in August/September vs commodity currencies and rolled into stronger EM FX and more recently marked tops in the USD/KRW and USD/THB.Yield peak targets outlined that will provide fuel for a weaker USD, stronger metals and a short financials pair versus sectors that benefit from a yield backfill. 

This note takes a thorough look, through a technical lens, of major JPY crosses as nearly all show bullish breakouts across the board.When seen in conjunction with rising yields, higher commodity prices, and stable stocks, we get a fuller picture of the reflationary trends that have re-emerged across markets except in Japan where deflationary concerns (even in the face of rising wholesale prices) are never far away. This keeps the JPY the favoured funding currency, as usual.Keep in mind that US yields are likely to continue higher still – the target for US 5-year yield is 1.80% which will probably take a few months to achieve. Such a development would most likely put US 10-year yield well above 2.00%.The only trend, at this juncture, that is beginning to look mature is the rally in Brent Crude, which has effectively met the $85 target area that has been in place for over a month. That does not mean we will reverse but instead could slow down or consolidate ahead of big levels just below $90.

This note takes a thorough look, through a technical lens, of major JPY crosses as nearly all show bullish breakouts across the board.When seen in conjunction with rising yields, higher commodity prices, and stable stocks, we get a fuller picture of the reflationary trends that have re-emerged across markets except in Japan where deflationary concerns (even in the face of rising wholesale prices) are never far away. This keeps the JPY the favoured funding currency, as usual.Keep in mind that US yields are likely to continue higher still – the target for US 5-year yield is 1.80% which will probably take a few months to achieve. Such a development would most likely put US 10-year yield well above 2.00%.The only trend, at this juncture, that is beginning to look mature is the rally in Brent Crude, which has effectively met the $85 target area that has been in place for over a month. That does not mean we will reverse but instead could slow down or consolidate ahead of big levels just below $90.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Playing with Fire – FX & Rates, Japan

Is the Bank of Japan immune in a world that sees rising consumer prices? Should they continue to pursue a policy that only seems to weaken their...

Shyam Devani

Japanese Yen – Myths and Realities

Yen is viewed as safe-haven, EM funding currency. Only first half has held true in past 18 months. Trade deficit weighing on Yen but risk-aversion...

Olivier Desbarres

Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

Price action developments across various markets - from Gold & FX to Commodities & Fixed Income - are warning of a potential negative wave ahead...

Shyam Devani

Weak Dollar Leading Yield Top

USD domino decline gaining traction with the Euro above our 1.1610 pivot barrier. USD weakness (DXY 94.50 top call) leading a peak in the 5yr and...

Thomas Schroeder

JPY Crosses Continue to Trend

JPY weakness continues to come through as reflationary trends re-emerge while Japanese yields remain extremely low thus making the Yen the chosen...

Shyam Devani

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