Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

After a period of correction and consolidation over the past few week, it is becoming clearer that a base could be forming on US 30 year yield.Key downside pivots at 2.20% were, and remain, important to watch. So far the supports are holding the market. Focus however is now shifting to the key level above at 2.32%, especially as many industrial metals have rallied.

After a period of correction and consolidation over the past few week, it is becoming clearer that a base could be forming on US 30 year yield.Key downside pivots at 2.20% were, and remain, important to watch. So far the supports are holding the market. Focus however is now shifting to the key level above at 2.32%, especially as many industrial metals have rallied.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

FX & Rates

Two weeks ago in a note titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/commodity-currencies-and-their-warnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49691" rel="noopener">Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings</a> we examined their short term setups and potential declines (mainly against the USD)This was largely on the back of a slip in the Oil price and long term levels being tested on major commodity indices. A lot of the indications in that note are still valid.Since then, we see fresh indications that yields will likely slip too which brings some JPY crosses into focus. While there have not been any breaks as yet, key levels on AUDJPY and CADJPY should be watched closely.

Two weeks ago in a note titled Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings we examined their short term setups and potential declines (mainly against the USD)This was largely on the back of a slip in the Oil price and long term levels being tested on major commodity indices. A lot of the indications in that note are still valid.Since then, we see fresh indications that yields will likely slip too which brings some JPY crosses into focus. While there have not been any breaks as yet, key levels on AUDJPY and CADJPY should be watched closely.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>A new currency regime in Asia?</li>
<li>Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM</li>
<li>Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade</li>
<li>
De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization</li>
<li>Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM</li>
</ul>


A new currency regime in Asia?
Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM
Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade

De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization
Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM


Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion.We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand increased by about $514bn or 10% in the eleven months to end-February 2021 to about $5.66 trillion. This was just $122bn short of all the all-time high recorded in June-2014.Adjusting for currency-valuation effects – the appreciation of other major reserve currencies versus the US Dollar – we estimate that these NJA central banks’ FX reserves increased by about $342bn or 6.4%. As a percentage of GDP, this increase amounted to about 1.5% for NJA, ranging from only 0.3% in China to nearly 28% in Singapore. While realised investment gains on these central banks’ holdings and other official transactions may have inflated this increase in FX reserves, it was at least partly the result of central banks’ intervention in the FX market (i.e. buying foreign currency), in our view. Importantly, NJA central banks rightly attach greater importance to their currencies’ more relevant Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs), when setting their exchange rate and interest rate policies, than to their currency’s bilateral exchange rates, in our view.In the past 11 months NJA central banks have continued to show an ability and willingness to both limit daily FX volatility and influence their NEERs’ medium-term directionality.FX reserve accumulation has either capped the pace of appreciation (CNY, IDR, KRW, THB, TWD) or contributed to (albeit modest in most cases) NEER depreciation (INR, MYR, PHP) with NJA central banks seemingly intent on maintaining export competitiveness and limiting imported deflation. The Singapore Dollar NEER was unchanged over this period.Of course the past and future performance of individual currencies is conditioned by both the magnitude of central bank FX intervention AND current account and capital account flows (and the underlying factors behind these policies and FX flows) – the topic of Part Two of this FIRMS report.

Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion.We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand increased by about $514bn or 10% in the eleven months to end-February 2021 to about $5.66 trillion. This was just $122bn short of all the all-time high recorded in June-2014.Adjusting for currency-valuation effects – the appreciation of other major reserve currencies versus the US Dollar – we estimate that these NJA central banks’ FX reserves increased by about $342bn or 6.4%. As a percentage of GDP, this increase amounted to about 1.5% for NJA, ranging from only 0.3% in China to nearly 28% in Singapore. While realised investment gains on these central banks’ holdings and other official transactions may have inflated this increase in FX reserves, it was at least partly the result of central banks’ intervention in the FX market (i.e. buying foreign currency), in our view. Importantly, NJA central banks rightly attach greater importance to their currencies’ more relevant Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs), when setting their exchange rate and interest rate policies, than to their currency’s bilateral exchange rates, in our view.In the past 11 months NJA central banks have continued to show an ability and willingness to both limit daily FX volatility and influence their NEERs’ medium-term directionality.FX reserve accumulation has either capped the pace of appreciation (CNY, IDR, KRW, THB, TWD) or contributed to (albeit modest in most cases) NEER depreciation (INR, MYR, PHP) with NJA central banks seemingly intent on maintaining export competitiveness and limiting imported deflation. The Singapore Dollar NEER was unchanged over this period.Of course the past and future performance of individual currencies is conditioned by both the magnitude of central bank FX intervention AND current account and capital account flows (and the underlying factors behind these policies and FX flows) – the topic of Part Two of this FIRMS report. 

Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX Intervention

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Bonds - Clear Levels to Watch

Having tested important pivots around 2.20%, we are now seeing a picture that points to higher yields again. Key levels in both directions are...

Shyam Devani

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Commodity Currencies and the JPY

The three charts of US 10Y yield with USDJPY, AUDJPY and CADJPY are all giving early warning signs that lower levels could be seen. Watch these levels

Shyam Devani

Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Asian cross-currency volatility is at its all-time low. A de facto Euro-like unit is forming. This could be hugely bullish for Emerging Markets

Michael J. Howell

Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX Intervention

Non-Japan Asian central banks have in past year intervened in FX market to cap FX volatility, protect export competitiveness and limit imported...

Olivier Desbarres

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