India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After the Indian judiciary denied relief to power firms from RBI’s NPA deadline, it has become much more likely that the lenders will start insolvency proceedings against defaulters. But, this is unlikely to be smooth for banks and of course, the troubled power companies will have to suffer. While it is possible that most of these banks don't yet know the true extent of NPA in power sector problem and have not provided for potential losses, there are several power companies which will have uncertain future on the projects which are stuck. While this entire process will bring considerable pain to these stakeholders, it could also be good for the companies which have sector expertise and are interested in buying assets at an attractive price. </p>

After the Indian judiciary denied relief to power firms from RBI’s NPA deadline, it has become much more likely that the lenders will start insolvency proceedings against defaulters. But, this is unlikely to be smooth for banks and of course, the troubled power companies will have to suffer. While it is possible that most of these banks don't yet know the true extent of NPA in power sector problem and have not provided for potential losses, there are several power companies which will have uncertain future on the projects which are stuck. While this entire process will bring considerable pain to these stakeholders, it could also be good for the companies which have sector expertise and are interested in buying assets at an attractive price. 

India Power Sector: The End Game Has Just Begun and It Will Be Painful for Many

<h2>The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five years</h2><p>The Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start the process of setting tariff regulations for the next five years starting 1st April 2019. (<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/cerc-readying-paper-on-tariff-norms-for-2019-24/articleshow/64282204.cms" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p><p>The tentative timelines could be as follows:</p><ol>
<li>June 2018 - Release of draft paper by CERC for public consultations and comments from stakeholders.</li>
<li>August/September 2018 - Public hearing on draft paper from the stakeholders including consumer groups.</li>
<li>…</li>
</ol>

The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five yearsThe Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start the process of setting tariff regulations for the next five years starting 1st April 2019. (Source)The tentative timelines could be as follows:
June 2018 - Release of draft paper by CERC for public consultations and comments from stakeholders.
August/September 2018 - Public hearing on draft paper from the stakeholders including consumer groups.
…


India Power Sector: Regulator Will Tweak Tariff Norms from April 2019 - Potential Winners and Losers

<h2>Weather plays a role in electricity demand in the spot market</h2><p>In March beginning, we had written about the forecast from India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the summer season will bring more misery to West and Central India this year. This is important for several sectors including Power Generation. Please refer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-summer-to-begin-early-and-will-be-harsher-than-usual-five-stocks-that-may-benefit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18193">India: Summer to Begin Early and Will Be Harsher than Usual - Five Stocks that May Benefit</a>.</p><p>The power demand increases especially in the Western and Central India in…</p>

Weather plays a role in electricity demand in the spot marketIn March beginning, we had written about the forecast from India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the summer season will bring more misery to West and Central India this year. This is important for several sectors including Power Generation. Please refer India: Summer to Begin Early and Will Be Harsher than Usual - Five Stocks that May Benefit.The power demand increases especially in the Western and Central India in…

India Power Sector: Summer Is Good for Short Term Demand, Prices and Volumes up in Spot Market

<p>The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the country, it is time for the Govt to listen. The failure of UDAY (key initiative launched for distribution sector), no resolution on loss making power plants and no interest of DISCOMs in long term power purchase agreements make the situation precarious and there are serious implications for not just power sector but also for lenders, fuel suppliers and equipment manufacturers.</p>

The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the country, it is time for the Govt to listen. The failure of UDAY (key initiative launched for distribution sector), no resolution on loss making power plants and no interest of DISCOMs in long term power purchase agreements make the situation precarious and there are serious implications for not just power sector but also for lenders, fuel suppliers and equipment manufacturers.

India: Challenges in Power Sector Are Well Known but Will Policy Makers Now Listen to SBI Chairman?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not service their loans, due to interest cover registering less than 1x. Perhaps more interesting for what’s to come, is to examine some of the largest debt holders, where interest coverage is rapidly worsening, but where the figures were above 1x as at December 2017. It is also illustrative to see how quickly companies in India are seeing their financial…</p>

For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not service their loans, due to interest cover registering less than 1x. Perhaps more interesting for what’s to come, is to examine some of the largest debt holders, where interest coverage is rapidly worsening, but where the figures were above 1x as at December 2017. It is also illustrative to see how quickly companies in India are seeing their financial…

India - Grind of Corporate Stress, to Worsen

India

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

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JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN)

India Power Sector: The End Game Has Just Begun and It Will Be Painful for Many

After the Indian judiciary denied relief to power firms from RBI’s NPA deadline, it has become much more likely that the lenders will start...

Pankaj Sharma

India Power Sector: Regulator Will Tweak Tariff Norms from April 2019 - Potential Winners and Losers

The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five yearsThe Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start...

Pankaj Sharma

India Power Sector: Summer Is Good for Short Term Demand, Prices and Volumes up in Spot Market

Weather plays a role in electricity demand in the spot marketIn March beginning, we had written about the forecast from India...

Pankaj Sharma

India: Challenges in Power Sector Are Well Known but Will Policy Makers Now Listen to SBI Chairman?

The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the...

Pankaj Sharma

India - Grind of Corporate Stress, to Worsen

For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)