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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 6/4/2% respectively in 2QFY25.</li><li>Consumer staples Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG has not seen any meaningful improvement owing to (1) subdued macro, (2) hygiene inventory correction undertaken by a few companies to improve the health of the system, (3) adverse weather conditions impacting consumption of cold beverages, (4) largest MT player undertaking significant inventory optimisation measures, which has reduced offtake from FMCG companies, (5) no meaningful improvement in liquidity situation, as funds which were expected to get released back into the system (post elections) are yet to come back, (6) market share gains via quick commerce from traditional channels, where D2C has a better edge in the QC channel.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growthAt an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 6/4/2% respectively in 2QFY25.Consumer staples Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG has not seen any meaningful improvement owing to (1) subdued macro, (2) hygiene inventory correction undertaken by a few companies to improve the health of the system, (3) adverse weather conditions impacting consumption of cold beverages, (4) largest MT player undertaking significant inventory optimisation measures, which has reduced offtake from FMCG companies, (5) no meaningful improvement in liquidity situation, as funds which were expected to get released back into the system (post elections) are yet to come back, (6) market share gains via quick commerce from traditional channels, where D2C has a better edge in the QC channel.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer (Q2FY25 Results Preview): One more soft quarter but outlook is improving

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken</li><li>These challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past</li><li>(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscape</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chickenThese challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscapeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.</li><li>Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

<ul><li>The Pizza category has a tumultuous history</li><li>It has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSG</li><li>We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Pizza category has a tumultuous historyIt has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSGWe believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

<ul><li>JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) front</li><li>SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggle</li><li>We continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) frontSSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggleWe continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

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Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)

Consumer (Q2FY25 Results Preview): One more soft quarter but outlook is improving

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues...

HDFC Securities

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