Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13585" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1">Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US)</a>, a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US), a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

We view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13585" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1">Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US)</a> as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China.  It competes in a market dominated by the slow moving commercial banks – many owned by the state – in distributing and managing investment portfolios for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in China.  Wealth creation in China over the past decade has reached such a critical mass that high quality investment services are now in high demand.  We believe that NOAH Holdings, a niche pure play in the wealth and asset management industry, is positioned to grow its AUM (asset under management) by grabbing share in this growing industry.

We view Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US) as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China.  It competes in a market dominated by the slow moving commercial banks – many owned by the state – in distributing and managing investment portfolios for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in China.  Wealth creation in China over the past decade has reached such a critical mass that high quality investment services are now in high demand.  We believe that NOAH Holdings, a niche pure play in the wealth and asset management industry, is positioned to grow its AUM (asset under management) by grabbing share in this growing industry. 

NOAH Holdings: Leading Pure Play in China's Under-Served Private Banking Industry

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.<div class="content-highlight">On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…</div>

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

China

Jupai Holdings Limited is a third-party wealth management service provider focusing on distributing wealth management products and providing quality product advisory services to high-net-worth individuals in China.

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Jupai (JP US)

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors. ...

JL Warren Capital

NOAH Holdings: Leading Pure Play in China's Under-Served Private Banking Industry

We view Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US) as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China. It competes in a...

JL Warren Capital

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond...

Dechert LLP

Weakening Credit in 1Q17 in China

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment. The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...

Daniel Tabbush

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