European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.</li>
<li>Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.</li>
</ul>


Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.
Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.
Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.


Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/just-eat-takeaway-com-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28360:1" rel="noopener">Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA)</a> in an all-cash tender offer of €20.30 per share, valuing the deal at approximately €4.1 billion.</li>
<li>The transaction is awaiting Phase 1 regulatory approval from the European Commission, anticipated by late July 2025.</li>
<li>Upon completion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/just-eat-takeaway-com-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28360:1" rel="noopener">Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA)</a> will be removed from multiple major indices, potentially causing significant passive fund outflows.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is acquiring Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) in an all-cash tender offer of €20.30 per share, valuing the deal at approximately €4.1 billion.
The transaction is awaiting Phase 1 regulatory approval from the European Commission, anticipated by late July 2025.
Upon completion, Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) will be removed from multiple major indices, potentially causing significant passive fund outflows.


Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

<ul>
<li>Prosus' €4.1bn all-cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway.com represents a 63% premium to the pre-announcement share price and an EV/NTM EBITDA multiple of 9.3x, above the sector median of 7.2x.</li>
<li>The deal strengthens Prosus' global food delivery footprint, complementing its stakes in iFood, Delivery Hero, and Meituan, with potential synergies in AI-driven logistics, customer acquisition, and operational efficiency.</li>
<li>Regulatory approval remains a key hurdle, especially in markets where Just Eat Takeaway.com and Delivery Hero hold significant shares, potentially impacting the likelihood and timeline of deal completion.</li>
</ul>


Prosus' €4.1bn all-cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway.com represents a 63% premium to the pre-announcement share price and an EV/NTM EBITDA multiple of 9.3x, above the sector median of 7.2x.
The deal strengthens Prosus' global food delivery footprint, complementing its stakes in iFood, Delivery Hero, and Meituan, with potential synergies in AI-driven logistics, customer acquisition, and operational efficiency.
Regulatory approval remains a key hurdle, especially in markets where Just Eat Takeaway.com and Delivery Hero hold significant shares, potentially impacting the likelihood and timeline of deal completion.


Prosus/Just Eat Takeaway: A Strategic Takeover in the Food Delivery Sector

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a>, a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.35 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/swiggy-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:163915" rel="noopener">Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/swiggy-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:164347" rel="noopener">Swiggy IPO: The Bear Case</a>. 
</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs371-390 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (1255298D IN), a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.35 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.
We previously discussed the IPO in Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case and Swiggy IPO: The Bear Case. 

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs371-390 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TKWY is a market leader in food delivery in Germany and the Netherlands, as well as other major markets.</li><li>Despite a 90% decline in stock value since before covid, TKWY has an EV of 2.7B EUR.</li><li>M&amp;A multiples in the industry typically range above 0.5x GTV, suggesting potential undervaluation of TKWY's assets and market position.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

TKWY is a market leader in food delivery in Germany and the Netherlands, as well as other major markets.Despite a 90% decline in stock value since before covid, TKWY has an EV of 2.7B EUR.M&amp;A multiples in the industry typically range above 0.5x GTV, suggesting potential undervaluation of TKWY's assets and market position.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Just Eat Takeaway.Com N.V. (JTKWY) - Thursday, Jul 25, 2024

Netherlands

Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. is a Dutch multinational online food ordering and delivery company that operates as a global marketplace. It connects consumers with restaurant, grocery, and retail partners through its platforms, offering a wide variety of food choices and convenience products. The company is headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and was founded in 2000.

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Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA)

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Prosus’s JET offer nears regulatory decision with a tight 1.1% spread. High probability of success offers 5.5% annualized return; downside risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

Prosus nears completion of its €4.1B cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway, triggering index deletions and passive flows along with intra-quarter index...

Harry Kalfas

Prosus/Just Eat Takeaway: A Strategic Takeover in the Food Delivery Sector

Prosus offers €4.1bn for Just Eat Takeaway.com, boosting global food delivery presence with potential synergies but facing regulatory hurdles.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Swiggy IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs371-390 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

Just Eat Takeaway.Com N.V. (JTKWY) - Thursday, Jul 25, 2024

TKWY is a market leader in food delivery in Germany and the Netherlands, as well as other major markets. Despite a 90% decline in stock value since...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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52-week Range

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P/E

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Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Prosus’s JET offer nears regulatory decision with a tight 1.1% spread. High probability of success offers 5.5% annualized return; downside risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

Prosus nears completion of its €4.1B cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway, triggering index deletions and passive flows along with intra-quarter index...

Harry Kalfas

Prosus/Just Eat Takeaway: A Strategic Takeover in the Food Delivery Sector

​Prosus offers €4.1bn for Just Eat Takeaway.com, boosting global food delivery presence with potential synergies but facing regulatory hurdles.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Swiggy IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs371-390 per share is unattractive. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

Just Eat Takeaway.Com N.V. (JTKWY) - Thursday, Jul 25, 2024

TKWY is a market leader in food delivery in Germany and the Netherlands, as well as other major markets. Despite a 90% decline in stock value since...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Prosus offers €4.1bn for Just Eat Takeaway.com, boosting global food delivery presence with potential synergies but facing regulatory hurdles.