Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

<ul>
<li>There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.</li>
</ul>


There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.</li>
<li>Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.
Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

On September 3, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-therapeutics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29679:1" rel="noopener">JW Therapeutics (2126 HK) </a>announced that its CAR-T product JWCAR029 (relma-cel) got the approval from the NMPA for market launch, which became the second CAR-T product approved in China after Fosun Kite’s Yescarta and the sixth CAR-T product approved globally. On September 6, the Company’s share price was up about 28%, but pulled back afterwards. This insight mainly analyzed the CAR-T product JWCAR029, the commercialization outlook and the related concerns.

On September 3, 2021, JW Therapeutics (2126 HK) announced that its CAR-T product JWCAR029 (relma-cel) got the approval from the NMPA for market launch, which became the second CAR-T product approved in China after Fosun Kite’s Yescarta and the sixth CAR-T product approved globally. On September 6, the Company’s share price was up about 28%, but pulled back afterwards. This insight mainly analyzed the CAR-T product JWCAR029, the commercialization outlook and the related concerns. 

JW Therapeutics (2126.HK) - Concerns on Commercialization

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

CARsgen Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

Carsgen is a China and US-based clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on CAR-T therapies. The company has four CAR-T products and one monoclonal antibody in the clinical stage.  The company is looking to raise up to USD 300m via a Hong Kong listing.The company has many selling points, including the potentially best-in-class BCMA target for the indication of r/r MM, and its advancement in two targets for the CAR-T therapy, namely CLDN18.2 and GPC3. It has its own technologies that improved the safety for CAR-T technology and also demonstrated preliminary efficacy in the solid tumor which was challenging for the CAR-T therapy. Having looked at numbers from its clinical trials for CT053, we are of the view that this is a promising therapy for r/r MM but the market will be mostly in the US where the company has started clinical trial. As the company is leading in the CLDN18.2 and GPC3, there might be upside if the target is proven to work for CAR-T therapy. The company has a strong management team with academic experiences. Its pre-IPO investors are strong but are mainly domestic institutions. In this note, we will provide our thoughts on the company's valuation.

Carsgen is a China and US-based clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on CAR-T therapies. The company has four CAR-T products and one monoclonal antibody in the clinical stage.  The company is looking to raise up to USD 300m via a Hong Kong listing.The company has many selling points, including the potentially best-in-class BCMA target for the indication of r/r MM, and its advancement in two targets for the CAR-T therapy, namely CLDN18.2 and GPC3. It has its own technologies that improved the safety for CAR-T technology and also demonstrated preliminary efficacy in the solid tumor which was challenging for the CAR-T therapy. Having looked at numbers from its clinical trials for CT053, we are of the view that this is a promising therapy for r/r MM but the market will be mostly in the US where the company has started clinical trial. As the company is leading in the CLDN18.2 and GPC3, there might be upside if the target is proven to work for CAR-T therapy. The company has a strong management team with academic experiences. Its pre-IPO investors are strong but are mainly domestic institutions. In this note, we will provide our thoughts on the company's valuation.

CARsgen (科济药业) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

China

JW Therapeutics is a clinical-stage cell therapy company focused on developing, manufacturing, and commercializing breakthrough cell-based immunotherapies for hematological cancers and solid tumors. Its lead product is Carteyva (relmacabtagene autoleucel), an autologous anti-CD19 CAR-T therapy. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2016.

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JW Therapeutics (2126 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance. 19 stocks will be added to Stock Connect and 12 will be removed. Some of...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas