Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.</li>
<li>Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> ETFs taking in the largest amounts.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.
Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI after market close on Friday.
There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and SSE50 Index ETFs taking in the largest amounts.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Kadokawa announced yesterday that subsidiary From Software would conduct a third-party allocation of shares to Sony and Tencent. </li>
<li>The allotment values From Software at about ¥120bn with Tencent acquiring 16.25% and Sony acquiring 14.09% of the company. </li>
<li>This creates opportunities for both Sony and Tencent and likely puts Kadokawa on track to eventually be acquired though timing may be somewhat later than we had anticipated.</li>
</ul>


Kadokawa announced yesterday that subsidiary From Software would conduct a third-party allocation of shares to Sony and Tencent. 
The allotment values From Software at about ¥120bn with Tencent acquiring 16.25% and Sony acquiring 14.09% of the company. 
This creates opportunities for both Sony and Tencent and likely puts Kadokawa on track to eventually be acquired though timing may be somewhat later than we had anticipated.


Kadokawa – Investments From Sony and Tencent

<ul>
<li>Sony held the first of their two investor days yesterday presenting on the Game &amp; Network Services, Music and Pictures segments. </li>
<li>While there was nothing especially new for those paying attention to the broad flow of news conditions for the content businesses remain strong. </li>
<li>What was interesting to us was the degree of collaboration with Kadokawa.</li>
</ul>


Sony held the first of their two investor days yesterday presenting on the Game &amp; Network Services, Music and Pictures segments. 
While there was nothing especially new for those paying attention to the broad flow of news conditions for the content businesses remain strong. 
What was interesting to us was the degree of collaboration with Kadokawa.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kadokawa earnings were strong with 4Q OP 56% above consensus despite a meagre 1.5% beat at the revenue line. </li>
<li>Margin guidance was nonsensically conservative however as despite revenue guidance being in line with consensus the company guided for OP to miss by 25% and actually decline by 3.9% YoY. </li>
<li>That prompted a 16.3% decline the day after earnings but the stock has rebounded and now sits just 2.1% below its pre-earnings level.</li>
</ul>


Kadokawa earnings were strong with 4Q OP 56% above consensus despite a meagre 1.5% beat at the revenue line. 
Margin guidance was nonsensically conservative however as despite revenue guidance being in line with consensus the company guided for OP to miss by 25% and actually decline by 3.9% YoY. 
That prompted a 16.3% decline the day after earnings but the stock has rebounded and now sits just 2.1% below its pre-earnings level.


Kadokawa – How Much Upside Potential Does Elden Ring Offer?

Japan

Kadokawa Corporation operates as a publishing company. The Company provides books publication, magazines publication, and other services. Kadokawa also operates video making, network entertainment designing, and other businesses.

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Kadokawa (9468 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Kadokawa – Investments From Sony and Tencent

Investment in From Software by both Sony and Tencent and likely puts Kadokawa on track to eventually be acquired though timing may be somewhat...

Mio Kato

Sony – IR Day One and Kadokawa

Sony's first IR day covered its content businesses painting a picture of steady future growth, but what we found most interesting was just how much...

Mio Kato

Kadokawa – How Much Upside Potential Does Elden Ring Offer?

Kadokawa stock has rebounded after a sharp 16.3% decline after earnings when guidance was nonsensically conservative. The question is how upside...

Mio Kato

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