Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 7 adds and 7 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There are also a bunch of stocks that will have changes applied to their free float. There were announced last week and are much less tracked.</li>
<li>The flows and impact on some of the float change names are significant and pre-positioning and passive flows could move the stocks over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 adds and 7 deletes for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.
There are also a bunch of stocks that will have changes applied to their free float. There were announced last week and are much less tracked.
The flows and impact on some of the float change names are significant and pre-positioning and passive flows could move the stocks over the next few days.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Float Changes, Flows & Trades

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Flows from the ETFs/index funds serve as a minimal flow for rebalancing trading at the close on June 9. The total AUM is ₩18.9T: ETFs ₩15.0T and index funds ₩3.9T.</li>
<li>There are only three trading days left until the rebalancing trading. At this point, a setup aimed at the NPS/Insurance's preemptive trading seems a bit off, timing-wise.</li>
<li>It seems more appropriate at this point to design a day basket-trading based on the minimal flow size on the day of rebalancing trading, June 9.</li>
</ul>


Flows from the ETFs/index funds serve as a minimal flow for rebalancing trading at the close on June 9. The total AUM is ₩18.9T: ETFs ₩15.0T and index funds ₩3.9T.
There are only three trading days left until the rebalancing trading. At this point, a setup aimed at the NPS/Insurance's preemptive trading seems a bit off, timing-wise.
It seems more appropriate at this point to design a day basket-trading based on the minimal flow size on the day of rebalancing trading, June 9.


KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Minimal Flow at the Close on June 9 For Day Basket-Trading

<ul>
<li>Is Kakao Pay showing an upward trend after hitting bottom? It doesn't seem to me yet. The NPS is the only buyer who has recently driven the share price up.</li>
<li>I'd consider betting on the decline in Kakao Pay's share price once this passive flow is completed. An ideal entry point? I would avoid the June 9 rebalancing trading day.</li>
<li>However, it is unlikely that this passive flow factor will spill over after June 9. So I'd consider building up a short position from late June 9 towards the close.</li>
</ul>


Is Kakao Pay showing an upward trend after hitting bottom? It doesn't seem to me yet. The NPS is the only buyer who has recently driven the share price up.
I'd consider betting on the decline in Kakao Pay's share price once this passive flow is completed. An ideal entry point? I would avoid the June 9 rebalancing trading day.
However, it is unlikely that this passive flow factor will spill over after June 9. So I'd consider building up a short position from late June 9 towards the close.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity</li>
<li>We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list</li>
</ul>


Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity
We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it
Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list


Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets.</li>
<li>Most of the market rebound in KOSPI in the past 100 days have occurred in the past one week.</li>
<li>The rally in global equity markets in the past week seems to suggest some higher probability that the war in Ukraine could be ended in the next several months. </li>
</ul>


Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets.
Most of the market rebound in KOSPI in the past 100 days have occurred in the past one week.
The rally in global equity markets in the past week seems to suggest some higher probability that the war in Ukraine could be ended in the next several months. 


Kissinger's Warning that Ukraine Must Give Russia Territory - A Key Inflection Point for KOSPI?

South Korea

Kakao Pay Corp. operates financial businesses. The Company provides online payment, currency encryption, and other services. Kakao Pay conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Kakaopay (377300 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Float Changes, Flows & Trades

There are significant flows and impact on some stocks that have float changes at the upcoming KOSPI2 rebalance. With over 5 days ADV to buy,...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Minimal Flow at the Close on June 9 For Day Basket-Trading

This post gathers the combined AUM of the local ETFs/index funds mirroring the KOSPI 200 and estimates the minimal passive flow on the rebalancing...

Sanghyun Park

Shorting Entry Point Coming on Kakao Pay

This post investigates the driving force behind Kakao Pay's recent price surge (+25%) and discusses why this should be a shorting entry point.

Sanghyun Park

Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

In payments, we stick with our longs on Mastercard for its quality, PagSeguro and Nexi for value; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts, adding it to...

Victor Galliano

Kissinger's Warning that Ukraine Must Give Russia Territory - A Key Inflection Point for KOSPI?

Henry Kissinger's statement that Ukraine must give Russia some territory could be a crucial inflection point in the global markets. Global equity...

Douglas Kim

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