Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.</li>
<li>Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.</li>
<li>Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.</li>
</ul>


Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.


Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).</li>
<li>The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price).  Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million). </li>
<li>This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.</li>
</ul>


Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price).  Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million). 
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.


Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

<ul>
<li>This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.</li>
<li>Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.</li>
<li>Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.</li>
</ul>


This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.
Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.
Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.


Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We introduce our payments scorecard in this report, in which we apply weightings to our metrics of valuation, margins, EBITDA growth estimates and valuation-to-growth to deliver rankings</li>
<li>We keep PagSeguro and Nexi on the buy list, both of these are in the top three in the scorecard; we add PayPal to the buys, replacing the mega-cap Visa</li>
<li>We remove our sell rating on Affirm, replacing it with Kakao Pay; Kakao Pay stock has rallied hard on stablecoin speculation, but our concern is that investors under-estimate regulatory risk</li>
</ul>


We introduce our payments scorecard in this report, in which we apply weightings to our metrics of valuation, margins, EBITDA growth estimates and valuation-to-growth to deliver rankings
We keep PagSeguro and Nexi on the buy list, both of these are in the top three in the scorecard; we add PayPal to the buys, replacing the mega-cap Visa
We remove our sell rating on Affirm, replacing it with Kakao Pay; Kakao Pay stock has rallied hard on stablecoin speculation, but our concern is that investors under-estimate regulatory risk


Payment Companies – Introducing the Sector Scorecard

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

South Korea

Kakao Pay Corp. operates financial businesses. The Company provides online payment, currency encryption, and other services. Kakao Pay conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Kakaopay (377300 KS)

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

We should pay attention to the possibility that Kakao Pay could be the biggest surprise in the December KOSPI 200 review.

Sanghyun Park

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay is issuing an overseas EB worth 627 billion won. This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

This post covers the Kakao Pay EB deal—essentially a quick block trade with immediate share exchange at a 90–102% strike, enabling quiet discounted...

Sanghyun Park

Payment Companies – Introducing the Sector Scorecard

We introduce our payments scorecard; PagSeguro and Nexi remain buys, while PayPal replaces Visa. Affirm is replaced on the sell list by Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

We should pay attention to the possibility that Kakao Pay could be the biggest surprise in the December KOSPI 200 review.

Sanghyun Park

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay is issuing an overseas EB worth 627 billion won. This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

This post covers the Kakao Pay EB deal—essentially a quick block trade with immediate share exchange at a 90–102% strike, enabling quiet discounted...

Sanghyun Park

Payment Companies – Introducing the Sector Scorecard

We ​introduce our payments scorecard; PagSeguro and Nexi remain buys, while PayPal replaces Visa. Affirm is replaced on the sell list by Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

We introduce our payments scorecard; PagSeguro and Nexi remain buys, while PayPal replaces Visa. Affirm is replaced on the sell list by Kakao Pay...