Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BZ reported 4Q23 revenue in-line/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 3.5%/21.9%, mainly attributable to effective cost control measures. </li>
<li>We think the competitive advantages over peers grand BZ privilege to enjoy the early sign of hiring demand recovery, whereas overall China job market remains lackluster in early 2024.</li>
<li>We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and rise TP by US$7.5 to US$22/ADS.</li>
</ul>


BZ reported 4Q23 revenue in-line/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 3.5%/21.9%, mainly attributable to effective cost control measures. 
We think the competitive advantages over peers grand BZ privilege to enjoy the early sign of hiring demand recovery, whereas overall China job market remains lackluster in early 2024.
We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and rise TP by US$7.5 to US$22/ADS.


[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK: Tesla's German factory caught on arson, interrupting production for a week (-)</li>
<li>BZ: Government’s 2024 new job creation guidance is relatively soft. (-)</li>
<li>9926 HK/9995 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/BGNE: US senator move forward with bill to constrain Wuxi Apptec-（/）</li>
</ul>


1211 HK: Tesla's German factory caught on arson, interrupting production for a week (-)
BZ: Government’s 2024 new job creation guidance is relatively soft. (-)
9926 HK/9995 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/BGNE: US senator move forward with bill to constrain Wuxi Apptec-（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/LI/NIO/ 1211 HK/BZ/9926 HK/9995 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/BGNE

<ul>
<li>BIDU/1810 HK: Samsung plans to configure Baidu Ernie large language model into Galaxy S24 (+/-)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: EV Deliveries for the Fourth Week of 2024 Show Continued Recovery Across the Board(+)</li>
<li>ATAT/TCOM/3690 HK: Tourism: Traveling trips beat expectation in the first four days of “Spring Move”(+)</li>
</ul>


BIDU/1810 HK: Samsung plans to configure Baidu Ernie large language model into Galaxy S24 (+/-)
1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: EV Deliveries for the Fourth Week of 2024 Show Continued Recovery Across the Board(+)
ATAT/TCOM/3690 HK: Tourism: Traveling trips beat expectation in the first four days of “Spring Move”(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

<ul>
<li>BZ reported 3Q23 cash billing 0.8% higher than our est., revenue beat our estimate/consensus 5.2%/3.8%, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 103%/50%. </li>
<li>Cost saving and investment income are the main reasons for bottom-line beat, which we think are not sustainable.</li>
<li>Even BZ can deliver its “3 years with 100mn new users” target until 2025, we think its 20% earnings CAGR in 2023-25E still cannot justify its high valuation (TBC)</li>
</ul>


BZ reported 3Q23 cash billing 0.8% higher than our est., revenue beat our estimate/consensus 5.2%/3.8%, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 103%/50%. 
Cost saving and investment income are the main reasons for bottom-line beat, which we think are not sustainable.
Even BZ can deliver its “3 years with 100mn new users” target until 2025, we think its 20% earnings CAGR in 2023-25E still cannot justify its high valuation (TBC)


[Kanzhun Ltd.(BZ US, SELL, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Growth Target Cannot Justify High Valuation

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK: Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature (-/-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>Kanzhun Limited: No signal for rebound in job market in China yet</li>
<li>700 HK： QQ Browser today announced the launch of the "PDF Reading Assistant" , which uses Tencent's own LLM Hunyuan to assist users.（/）</li>
</ul>


3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK: Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature (-/-/-/-/+)
Kanzhun Limited: No signal for rebound in job market in China yet
700 HK： QQ Browser today announced the launch of the "PDF Reading Assistant" , which uses Tencent's own LLM Hunyuan to assist users.（/）


China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

China

Kanzhun Limited provides online recruitment services. The Company connects job seekers and enterprise users through its mobile application. Kanzhun offers a mobile-native product that promotes instant direct chats between enterprise users and job seekers.

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Kanzhun (BZ US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/LI/NIO/ 1211 HK/BZ/9926 HK/9995 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/BGNE

Arson at Tesla's German factory halts production for a week, government's job creation guidance for 2024 is lacking, US senator pushes bill to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd.(BZ US, SELL, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Growth Target Cannot Justify High Valuation

BZ's 3Q23 results exceeded expectations, but the sustainability of cost savings and investment income is questionable. Even if BZ achieves its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature; No signal for rebound in job market in China yet; QQ Browser...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery

​BZ's strong 4Q23 results driven by cost control measures and early signs of hiring demand recovery in China lead to stock upgrade to BUY with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/LI/NIO/ 1211 HK/BZ/9926 HK/9995 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/BGNE

​Arson at Tesla's German factory halts production for a week, government's job creation guidance for 2024 is lacking, US senator pushes bill to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BIDU/1810 HK/BZ/300750 SZ/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/NIO/TCOM/ATAT/3690 HK

​Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kanzhun Ltd.(BZ US, SELL, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Growth Target Cannot Justify High Valuation

​BZ's 3Q23 results exceeded expectations, but the sustainability of cost savings and investment income is questionable. Even if BZ achieves its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature; No signal for rebound in job market in China yet; QQ Browser...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BZ's strong 4Q23 results driven by cost control measures and early signs of hiring demand recovery in China lead to stock upgrade to BUY with...

Arson at Tesla's German factory halts production for a week, government's job creation guidance for 2024 is lacking, US senator pushes bill to...

Samsung plans to integrate Baidu's language model into Galaxy S24; EV deliveries show recovery; and travel trips exceed expectations during the...

BZ's 3Q23 results exceeded expectations, but the sustainability of cost savings and investment income is questionable. Even if BZ achieves its...