Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KBANK reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~11% below our estimate.</li><li>Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.</li><li>Loan book edged down -0.3% YoY (+2.5% QoQ), while NIM contracted (-42 bps YoY, -18 bps QoQ).</li></ul>

KBANK reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt10.3bn (-4.5% YoY, -20.1% QoQ), ~11% below our estimate.Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.Loan book edged down -0.3% YoY (+2.5% QoQ), while NIM contracted (-42 bps YoY, -18 bps QoQ).

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Earnings Miss on Higher Costs

<ul><li>We maintain a “Neutral” rating with a new 12M FV of Bt181.50, based on 0.73x PBV (from Bt171.50, 0.69x), using a multiple regression model (R² = 80%) under new macro assumptions of Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (from 1.45% and 5.26%).</li><li>KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees and FVTPL gains.</li><li>NII fell (–7% YoY, –1% QoQ) on flat loans and weaker NIM, but cost control kept PPOP flat YoY (+2% QoQ).</li></ul>

We maintain a “Neutral” rating with a new 12M FV of Bt181.50, based on 0.73x PBV (from Bt171.50, 0.69x), using a multiple regression model (R² = 80%) under new macro assumptions of Rf 1.04% and MRP 5.79% (from 1.45% and 5.26%).KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees and FVTPL gains.NII fell (–7% YoY, –1% QoQ) on flat loans and weaker NIM, but cost control kept PPOP flat YoY (+2% QoQ).

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Upbeat Earnings Driven By Stronger Non-NII

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control, despite NIM pressure weighing on interest income.</li><li>Provisions increased to cushion uncertainties, while asset quality remained stable to slightly improved.</li><li>Sector-wide strategies remain aligned, focusing on quality growth, cost discipline, and proactive provisioning to navigate uncertainties.</li></ul>

The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control, despite NIM pressure weighing on interest income.Provisions increased to cushion uncertainties, while asset quality remained stable to slightly improved.Sector-wide strategies remain aligned, focusing on quality growth, cost discipline, and proactive provisioning to navigate uncertainties.

Banking: Thai Banks Under Pressure: Prioritizing Quality, Tightening Risk Control...

<ul><li>The US and Iran have signaled readiness to negotiate an end to the conflict.</li><li>Hopes of easing Middle East tensions support large-cap stocks (DELTA, ADVANC, AOT) and tourism/airline sectors, but weigh on energy and refinery stocks.</li><li>The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance stocks.</li></ul>

The US and Iran have signaled readiness to negotiate an end to the conflict.Hopes of easing Middle East tensions support large-cap stocks (DELTA, ADVANC, AOT) and tourism/airline sectors, but weigh on energy and refinery stocks.The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance stocks.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 1, 2026

Bangkok Life Assurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If NFP growth comes in below 100k, markets may expect limited scope for further Fed rate hikes, supporting fund flows back into emerging-market risk assets.</li>
<li>Fitch's recent upgrade of Thailand's outlook to Stable, while affirming its BBB+ rating, should also lower the risk premium on Thai assets.</li>
<li>Combined with economic recovery-driven EPS upgrades, this creates an attractive valuation entry point and supports a gradual recovery of the Thai stock market.</li>
</ul>


If NFP growth comes in below 100k, markets may expect limited scope for further Fed rate hikes, supporting fund flows back into emerging-market risk assets.
Fitch's recent upgrade of Thailand's outlook to Stable, while affirming its BBB+ rating, should also lower the risk premium on Thai assets.
Combined with economic recovery-driven EPS upgrades, this creates an attractive valuation entry point and supports a gradual recovery of the Thai stock market.


Hiking Rates Until the Economy Cracks, Then Cutting – The Fed's Game Behind the Inverted Curve?

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (KBank) is a financial institution offering a comprehensive range of commercial banking, securities, and related financial services. It provides corporate and retail banking services, including various loan products, deposit accounts, credit and debit cards, and investment solutions. KBank is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was established on June 8, 1945.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK/F TB)

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Earnings Miss on Higher Costs

Expenses was higher than expected (+3.2% YoY, +9.8% QoQ), lifting the cost-to-income ratio to 48.1% due to IT investments to expand service channels.

Krungthai XSpring

KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KBANK): Upbeat Earnings Driven By Stronger Non-NII

KBANK reported 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.0bn (+6% YoY, +4% QoQ), beating estimates on stronger Non-NII (+23% YoY, +8% QoQ) from fund management fees...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Thai Banks Under Pressure: Prioritizing Quality, Tightening Risk Control...

The banking sector’s 1Q26 results came in broadly better than market expectations, supported by strong non-NII growth and effective cost control...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 1, 2026

The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance...

Krungthai XSpring

Hiking Rates Until the Economy Cracks, Then Cutting – The Fed's Game Behind the Inverted Curve?

If NFP growth comes in below 100k, markets may expect limited scope for further Fed rate hikes, supporting fund flows back into emerging-market...

Krungthai XSpring

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