Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The MPC voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.75%.</li><li>This decision to hold the rate suggests that the MPC views the three previous rate cuts as sufficiently accommodative for the  time being.</li><li>We expect limited downside for interest rates going forward, as the MPC has signaled that the scope for further rate reductions is narrowing. </li></ul>

The MPC voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.75%.This decision to hold the rate suggests that the MPC views the three previous rate cuts as sufficiently accommodative for the  time being.We expect limited downside for interest rates going forward, as the MPC has signaled that the scope for further rate reductions is narrowing. 

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 1.75% - June 27, 2025

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,113/1,125 points (25-day EMA) and the support at 1,100/1,092 points, as external factors are overall slightly positive.</li><li>According to the CME FedWatch Tool this morning, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025 has been revised up to three times (previously two), despite Chairman Powell reiterating that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates.</li><li>Meanwhile, domestic factors are positive, supported by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintaining the policy rate at 1.75%, reflecting that the three previous rate cuts have been sufficient to some extent. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,113/1,125 points (25-day EMA) and the support at 1,100/1,092 points, as external factors are overall slightly positive.According to the CME FedWatch Tool this morning, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025 has been revised up to three times (previously two), despite Chairman Powell reiterating that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates.Meanwhile, domestic factors are positive, supported by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintaining the policy rate at 1.75%, reflecting that the three previous rate cuts have been sufficient to some extent. 

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance levels at 1,112/1,120 points and the support at 1,100/1,094 points.</li><li>External factors are neutral — although US markets rose, the gain was largely due to easing tensions in the Middle East, while Fed Chair Powell signaled no urgency to cut policy rates.</li><li>Domestic factors are positive, following the Cabinet's approval of the Bt115bn economic stimulus package yesterday (as expected), along with emerging optimism regarding Thailand-US trade negotiations and anticipation ahead of the MPC meeting. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance levels at 1,112/1,120 points and the support at 1,100/1,094 points.External factors are neutral — although US markets rose, the gain was largely due to easing tensions in the Middle East, while Fed Chair Powell signaled no urgency to cut policy rates.Domestic factors are positive, following the Cabinet's approval of the Bt115bn economic stimulus package yesterday (as expected), along with emerging optimism regarding Thailand-US trade negotiations and anticipation ahead of the MPC meeting. 

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.</li><li>Technically, the trend remains bearish (downtrend), but there is a short-term chance of a rebound, as a bullish reversal pattern known as a “hammer” has formed after the index hit a new low of 1,053.79 points yesterday before recovering in the afternoon.</li><li>This suggests a potential trend reversal, but only if today’s candlestick closes with a large green body — otherwise, it may just be a temporary pullback before further decline. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.Technically, the trend remains bearish (downtrend), but there is a short-term chance of a rebound, as a bullish reversal pattern known as a “hammer” has formed after the index hit a new low of 1,053.79 points yesterday before recovering in the afternoon.This suggests a potential trend reversal, but only if today’s candlestick closes with a large green body — otherwise, it may just be a temporary pullback before further decline. 

<ul><li>The stability of Paetongtarn’s government has begun to falter following the release of an audio recording of a conversation between the Thai prime minister and the Cambodian leader, which led to the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition government.</li><li>Although external pressure directed at the prime minister has intensified, it is believed that a Cabinet reshuffle within the remaining coalition — whose parliamentary majority slightly exceeds half — will be the preferred course of action, as the Pheu Thai Party is not yet prepared for a new election.</li><li>This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of dissolving Parliament remains low.</li></ul>

The stability of Paetongtarn’s government has begun to falter following the release of an audio recording of a conversation between the Thai prime minister and the Cambodian leader, which led to the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition government.Although external pressure directed at the prime minister has intensified, it is believed that a Cabinet reshuffle within the remaining coalition — whose parliamentary majority slightly exceeds half — will be the preferred course of action, as the Pheu Thai Party is not yet prepared for a new election.This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of dissolving Parliament remains low.

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK/F TB)

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 1.75% - June 27, 2025

We expect limited downside for interest rates going forward, as the MPC has signaled that the scope for further rate reductions is narrowing.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JUNE 26, 2025

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,113/1,125 points (25-day EMA) and the support at 1,100/1,092 points, as...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JUNE 25, 2025

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up (rising with intermittent pullbacks), with the resistance levels at 1,112/1,120 points and the...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JUNE 24, 2025

The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Ktx Ahead - June 23, 2025

This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of...

Krungthai XSpring

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