Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Moody’s has revised Thailand’s credit rating outlook from “Stable” to “Negative,” along with five listed Thai banks — BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, and TTB — citing concerns over the potential economic impact of US import tariff hikes.</li><li>KTX views this revision as a long-term pressure factor and anticipates a possible credit rating downgrade from the current Baa1 within the next year, pending greater clarity on tariff implementation.</li><li>While the outlook downgrade presents a near-term headwind for the banking sector, KTX maintains a positive medium- to long-term view and recommends a gradual accumulation of bank stocks. </li></ul>

Moody’s has revised Thailand’s credit rating outlook from “Stable” to “Negative,” along with five listed Thai banks — BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, and TTB — citing concerns over the potential economic impact of US import tariff hikes.KTX views this revision as a long-term pressure factor and anticipates a possible credit rating downgrade from the current Baa1 within the next year, pending greater clarity on tariff implementation.While the outlook downgrade presents a near-term headwind for the banking sector, KTX maintains a positive medium- to long-term view and recommends a gradual accumulation of bank stocks. 

Economic Update: Moody’s Downgrades Thailand’s Outlook to “Negative”

<ul><li>Concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy have intensified after GDP in 1Q25 contracted by 0.3% QoQ (the first contraction in 12 quarters).</li><li>This was compounded by a slowdown in domestic consumption — which accounts for 70% of GDP — registering its weakest growth in seven quarters (Figure 1), thereby giving the Fed room to cut interest rates.</li><li>However, from an outlook-dependent view, US tariff policies are expected to raise the costs of imported goods, which could drive inflation higher starting in 2Q25E.</li></ul>

Concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy have intensified after GDP in 1Q25 contracted by 0.3% QoQ (the first contraction in 12 quarters).This was compounded by a slowdown in domestic consumption — which accounts for 70% of GDP — registering its weakest growth in seven quarters (Figure 1), thereby giving the Fed room to cut interest rates.However, from an outlook-dependent view, US tariff policies are expected to raise the costs of imported goods, which could drive inflation higher starting in 2Q25E.

KTX Ahead: Baht Likely to Gain Further, Boosting Fund Inflows into Thailand - May 6, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,190 points (50-day EMA) and 1,185 points and the resistance at 1,210 and 1,214 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index appears to be entering a correction phase after rallying over 15% from this year’s new low of 1,056.41 points on April 8.</li><li>A reversal signal (hammer) appeared on Friday, suggesting the index may soften over the next 1-2 days. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,190 points (50-day EMA) and 1,185 points and the resistance at 1,210 and 1,214 points.In the short term, the index appears to be entering a correction phase after rallying over 15% from this year’s new low of 1,056.41 points on April 8.A reversal signal (hammer) appeared on Friday, suggesting the index may soften over the next 1-2 days. 

KTX Zoom - Reports of Manufacturing and Services PMIs for China and the EU

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,208/1,220 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,190 points (50-day EMA)/1,180 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index remains in a bullish flag rally phase, aiming to retest the previous resistance levels at 1,200/1,220 points after setting a new low for the year at 1,056.41 points on April 8.</li><li>This upward movement signals a medium-term trend reversal to an uptrend (bottoming out). Next, the index is expected to enter a consolidation phase to confirm a higher low in the long term (the major buying zone lies at 1,145/1,128 points). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,208/1,220 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,190 points (50-day EMA)/1,180 points.In the short term, the index remains in a bullish flag rally phase, aiming to retest the previous resistance levels at 1,200/1,220 points after setting a new low for the year at 1,056.41 points on April 8.This upward movement signals a medium-term trend reversal to an uptrend (bottoming out). Next, the index is expected to enter a consolidation phase to confirm a higher low in the long term (the major buying zone lies at 1,145/1,128 points). 

KTX Zoom: US Non-Farm Payrolls - May 2, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,166/1,176 points and the support at 1,150/1,148 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>The short-term outlook remains within a bullish flag rally range of 1,134-1,166 points, aiming to retest the previous resistance at 1,176 points after setting a new low for the year at 1,056.41 points on April 8.</li><li>This upward movement is expected to help confirm a medium-term trend reversal from a downtrend to a new uptrend (with higher lows). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,166/1,176 points and the support at 1,150/1,148 points (10-day EMA).The short-term outlook remains within a bullish flag rally range of 1,134-1,166 points, aiming to retest the previous resistance at 1,176 points after setting a new low for the year at 1,056.41 points on April 8.This upward movement is expected to help confirm a medium-term trend reversal from a downtrend to a new uptrend (with higher lows). 

KTX Zoom: US: JOLTS Job Report -  APRIL 29, 2025

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (KBank) is a leading commercial bank in Thailand, offering a comprehensive range of financial products and services to corporate and retail customers. These services include various types of loans, deposit accounts, debit and credit cards, investment products, and digital banking solutions. KBank was established on June 8, 1945, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK-R TB)

Economic Update: Moody’s Downgrades Thailand’s Outlook to “Negative”

This is based on expectations of constructive trade negotiations and limited downside risks to interest rates. Our preferred accumulation targets...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Ahead: Baht Likely to Gain Further, Boosting Fund Inflows into Thailand - May 6, 2025

Concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy have intensified after GDP in 1Q25 contracted by 0.3% QoQ (the first contraction in 12 quarters).

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Reports of Manufacturing and Services PMIs for China and the EU

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,190 points (50-day EMA) and 1,185 points and the resistance at 1,210...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: US Non-Farm Payrolls - May 2, 2025

We maintain our recommendation to take profit on rallies for short-term investors, while long-term investors are advised to selectively buy on dips.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: US: JOLTS Job Report - APRIL 29, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,166/1,176 points and the support at 1,150/1,148 points (10-day EMA).

Krungthai XSpring

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