New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Christmas is a significant trading period for retailers. While 2024 has been a challenging year for the sector, recent listed trading updates and Stats NZ data suggest that sales declines are slowing.</li><li>We expect gross margins will remain under pressure as competition is elevated across the industry.</li><li>Despite this, the sector is optimistic for the year ahead, with our recent Pulse of NZ Business survey showing that retailers have seen demand increase over the last three months. </li></ul>

Christmas is a significant trading period for retailers. While 2024 has been a challenging year for the sector, recent listed trading updates and Stats NZ data suggest that sales declines are slowing.We expect gross margins will remain under pressure as competition is elevated across the industry.Despite this, the sector is optimistic for the year ahead, with our recent Pulse of NZ Business survey showing that retailers have seen demand increase over the last three months. 

Retail Sector - What's in Stock for Christmas & The Year Ahead

<ul><li>Much of the action for the upcoming retail reporting season came to light during confession season in February.</li><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported disappointing half year sales with declines across all brands; Hallenstein Glassons' (HLG) sales were flat, supported by a strong Christmas trading season and trading down trends; and the Warehouse Group (WHS) announced the sale of its under performing Torpedo 7 business for NZ$1. </li><li>The consumer backdrop has been challenging and we can't see any signs of that changing in the near-term. </li></ul>

Much of the action for the upcoming retail reporting season came to light during confession season in February.KMD Brands (KMD) reported disappointing half year sales with declines across all brands; Hallenstein Glassons' (HLG) sales were flat, supported by a strong Christmas trading season and trading down trends; and the Warehouse Group (WHS) announced the sale of its under performing Torpedo 7 business for NZ$1. The consumer backdrop has been challenging and we can't see any signs of that changing in the near-term. 

Retail Sector - Checking Out Reporting Season

<ul><li>Retailers are facing a challenging outlook</li><li>We expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023</li><li>In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.</li></ul>

Retailers are facing a challenging outlookWe expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

<ul><li>The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times ahead</li><li>Mortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDP</li><li>When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price</li></ul>

The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times aheadMortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDPWhen choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

Equity Capital Markets

Kathmandu Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported 1H26 EBITDA of NZ$11.5m, slightly ahead of the 1H26 guidance provided in January 2026.</li><li>The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and enter into a new NZ$205m debt facility (2.5-year term) to support liquidity and ongoing business transformation.</li><li>Sales through the first six weeks of 2H26 were up +11.1% in Kathmandu, with gross margins improving +50bp on the prior year, and +1.2% in Rip Curl.</li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) reported 1H26 EBITDA of NZ$11.5m, slightly ahead of the 1H26 guidance provided in January 2026.The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and enter into a new NZ$205m debt facility (2.5-year term) to support liquidity and ongoing business transformation.Sales through the first six weeks of 2H26 were up +11.1% in Kathmandu, with gross margins improving +50bp on the prior year, and +1.2% in Rip Curl.

KMD Brands 1H26 Result and NZ$65m Capital Raise

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

Retail Sector - What's in Stock for Christmas & The Year Ahead

Christmas is a significant trading period for retailers. While 2024 has been a challenging year for the sector, recent listed trading updates and...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Sector - Checking Out Reporting Season

Much of the action for the upcoming retail reporting season came to light during confession season in February. KMD Brands (KMD) reported...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Retailers are facing a challenging outlook - although consumer spending has been generally robust over the past 12 months, the double-edged sword...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands 1H26 Result and NZ$65m Capital Raise

KMD Brands (KMD) reported 1H26 EBITDA of NZ$11.5m, slightly ahead of the 1H26 guidance provided in January 2026. The proceeds will be used to...

Forsyth Barr

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