New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The US is the key opportunity for KMD Brands' (KMD) RipCurl business.</li><li>Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as at May 2023).</li><li>Its key US peers —Billabong, Quiksilver, Volcom, and several smaller surf and skate brands—were acquired by Authentic Brands in September 2023. </li></ul>

The US is the key opportunity for KMD Brands' (KMD) RipCurl business.Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as at May 2023).Its key US peers —Billabong, Quiksilver, Volcom, and several smaller surf and skate brands—were acquired by Authentic Brands in September 2023. 

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25 underlying EBITDA guidance.</li><li>The last time KMD provided a trading update with positive annual sales growth was in May 2023.</li><li>1H25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$1m–$3m was below ours and consensus expectations as gross margins compressed and marketing budgets increased to support sales growth. </li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25 underlying EBITDA guidance.The last time KMD provided a trading update with positive annual sales growth was in May 2023.1H25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$1m–$3m was below ours and consensus expectations as gross margins compressed and marketing budgets increased to support sales growth. 

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) provided a mixed 1Q25 trading update.</li><li>Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have been more resilient than we had expected.</li><li>This is offset by its wholesale businesses, which remain challenging; improvement is not expected until at least 2H25. </li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) provided a mixed 1Q25 trading update.Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have been more resilient than we had expected.This is offset by its wholesale businesses, which remain challenging; improvement is not expected until at least 2H25. 

<ul><li>KMD Brand's (KMD) FY24 result was in line with expectations, leaving our positive invest view unchanged.</li><li>The company's key focus over the last half was improving Kathmandu's product and branding, which appears to be gaining some traction. </li><li>Kathmandu's quarterly sales declines continue to incrementally improve, and gross margin dollars through the first eight-weeks of FY25 was up +5% versus the same period last year. </li></ul>

KMD Brand's (KMD) FY24 result was in line with expectations, leaving our positive invest view unchanged.The company's key focus over the last half was improving Kathmandu's product and branding, which appears to be gaining some traction. Kathmandu's quarterly sales declines continue to incrementally improve, and gross margin dollars through the first eight-weeks of FY25 was up +5% versus the same period last year. 

KMD Brands - FY24 Result — On the Trail

<ul><li>KMD Brands' (KMD) FY24 trading update was in broadly in line with our expectations. More importantly, the update implicitly addressed two of the market's key concerns.</li><li>(1) It confirmed sales declines are sequentially getting less worse, suggesting that we could be getting closer to the end of KMD's earnings downgrade cycle (albeit the wholesale channel remains challenging).</li><li>(2) It showed KMD can effectively manage its working capital, inventory, and net debt levels, which eases concerns around its balance sheet. </li></ul>

KMD Brands' (KMD) FY24 trading update was in broadly in line with our expectations. More importantly, the update implicitly addressed two of the market's key concerns.(1) It confirmed sales declines are sequentially getting less worse, suggesting that we could be getting closer to the end of KMD's earnings downgrade cycle (albeit the wholesale channel remains challenging).(2) It showed KMD can effectively manage its working capital, inventory, and net debt levels, which eases concerns around its balance sheet. 

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

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Rip Curl is a top one or two surf brand in most of its international markets, except in the US, where it was identified as only a top-six brand (as...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Making It Out of the Barrel

KMD Brands (KMD) reported a mixed five-month trading update, with positive annual sales growth in November and December 2024 but disappointing 1H25...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Trekking Through the Cycle

Our key positive takeaways were: (1) sales declines in its direct to consumer (D2C) channels are clearly moderating, and (2) gross margins have...

Forsyth Barr

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KMD Brand's (KMD) FY24 result was in line with expectations, leaving our positive invest view unchanged. The company's key focus over the last half...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands - Positioned to Ride the Wave

KMD Brands' (KMD) FY24 trading update was in broadly in line with our expectations. More importantly, the update implicitly addressed two of the...

Forsyth Barr

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