New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 update shows sales across its key markets has recovered strongly in the first half versus the prior year, although EBITDA was lower than expected due to higher costs.</li><li>The underlying 1H23 EBITDA guidance of ~NZ$45m is below both our (~-11%) and consensus expectations (~-13%).</li><li>KMD noted gross margins remain resilient overall so operating expenses are likely to have grown materially from 1H22. We expect FY23 consensus downgrades as a result.</li></ul>

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 update shows sales across its key markets has recovered strongly in the first half versus the prior year, although EBITDA was lower than expected due to higher costs.The underlying 1H23 EBITDA guidance of ~NZ$45m is below both our (~-11%) and consensus expectations (~-13%).KMD noted gross margins remain resilient overall so operating expenses are likely to have grown materially from 1H22. We expect FY23 consensus downgrades as a result.

KMD Brands (KMD): 1H23 Update – Initial Impressions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retailers are facing a challenging outlook</li><li>We expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023</li><li>In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.</li></ul>

Retailers are facing a challenging outlookWe expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

<ul><li>The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times ahead</li><li>Mortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDP</li><li>When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price</li></ul>

The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times aheadMortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDPWhen choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

<ul><li>KMD Brands (KMD) has undergone a transformation from a single-brand retailer to a global brand owner</li><li>Diversified brand exposure with clear pathway for Kathmandu's international expansion</li><li>Positive changes in brand strategy and tailwinds across outdoor participation are likely to support long term growth</li></ul>

KMD Brands (KMD) has undergone a transformation from a single-brand retailer to a global brand ownerDiversified brand exposure with clear pathway for Kathmandu's international expansionPositive changes in brand strategy and tailwinds across outdoor participation are likely to support long term growth

KMD Brands: The Best View Comes After a Steep Climb

<ul><li>KMD Brands' (KMD) FY22 result confirmed second half performance showed signs of strong revenue growth across most brands and channels</li><li>Inventory levels higher, likely to be supported by growing foot traffic and international tourism</li><li>Market continues to be cautious on retail — but KMD priced for value</li></ul>

KMD Brands' (KMD) FY22 result confirmed second half performance showed signs of strong revenue growth across most brands and channelsInventory levels higher, likely to be supported by growing foot traffic and international tourismMarket continues to be cautious on retail — but KMD priced for value

KMD Brands: FY22 Result — A Step in the Right Direction

New Zealand

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd. provides clothing and equipment for the travel and adventure market. The Company operates retail locations throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Kathmandu Holdings (KMD NZ)

KMD Brands (KMD): 1H23 Update – Initial Impressions

KMD Brands’ (KMD) 1H23 update shows sales across its key markets has recovered strongly in the first half versus the prior year, although EBITDA...

Forsyth Barr

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Retailers are facing a challenging outlook - although consumer spending has been generally robust over the past 12 months, the double-edged sword...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands: The Best View Comes After a Steep Climb

KMD Brands (KMD) has undergone a transformation from a single-brand retailer to a global brand owner; the pandemic has made it challenging to...

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands: FY22 Result — A Step in the Right Direction

KMD Brands' (KMD) FY22 result confirmed second half performance showed signs of strong revenue growth across most brands and channels

Forsyth Barr

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