IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/japan-banks-extend-deadline-for-toshiba-bid-s-loan-decision#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has again extended the deadline for securing bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion).</li>
<li>A new issue has pushed the deadline to 3 February. If JIP manages to secure financing for an offer of around JPY5,100, the next challenge is securing Board support.</li>
<li>The 3QFY2022 update on 14 February needs to avoid further downgrades to keep the deal alive. Toshiba’s multiples are unattractive to peers. Remain on the sidelines for now.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has again extended the deadline for securing bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion).
A new issue has pushed the deadline to 3 February. If JIP manages to secure financing for an offer of around JPY5,100, the next challenge is securing Board support.
The 3QFY2022 update on 14 February needs to avoid further downgrades to keep the deal alive. Toshiba’s multiples are unattractive to peers. Remain on the sidelines for now.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese stocks headed lower this weak on concerns about rising global interest rates and a looming recession</li>
<li>Euglena, a small cap Japanese bio-tech, has found itself as a key part of the future for biofuels and SAF. </li>
<li>Japanese Heavies are so diverse that they now fit into many thematic portfolios. KHI looks well placed in the hydrogen supply chain and carbon capture. Exciting times</li>
</ul>


Japanese stocks headed lower this weak on concerns about rising global interest rates and a looming recession
Euglena, a small cap Japanese bio-tech, has found itself as a key part of the future for biofuels and SAF. 
Japanese Heavies are so diverse that they now fit into many thematic portfolios. KHI looks well placed in the hydrogen supply chain and carbon capture. Exciting times


Japan Weekly | Euglena, Kawasaki Heavy, Monotaro

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Toshiba-buyout-JIP-led-group-secures-8.8bn-loans-from-megabanks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> selling some businesses.</li>
<li>JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.</li>
<li>JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) selling some businesses.
JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.
JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

<ul>
<li>JIP, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s preferred bidder, is reported to be under pressure from co-investors to cut its offer price. Securing financing continues to be troublesome.  </li>
<li>An offer valuing Toshiba less than JPY2.2 trillion would face pushback from the special committee, let alone shareholders. There are no signs of a JIC/Bain coming to the rescue. </li>
<li>While the Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With short-term newsflow likely to be incrementally negative, remain on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


JIP, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s preferred bidder, is reported to be under pressure from co-investors to cut its offer price. Securing financing continues to be troublesome.  
An offer valuing Toshiba less than JPY2.2 trillion would face pushback from the special committee, let alone shareholders. There are no signs of a JIC/Bain coming to the rescue. 
While the Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With short-term newsflow likely to be incrementally negative, remain on the sidelines.


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP's Privatisation Bid Is Floundering

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.</li>
<li>Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.</li>
<li>These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.</li>
</ul>


In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.
Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.
These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.


Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Japan

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms

The ongoing financing deadline extensions and a looming 3Q update add to the deal uncertainty. While the price ratio is undemanding, Toshiba’s...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | Euglena, Kawasaki Heavy, Monotaro

It's nearly Christmas, so Japanese equities should be rallying, but they are not. Maybe next week when everyone is on holiday. KHI, Monotaro,...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

Against all odds, JIP has secured financing which helps to support near-term positive sentiment. Securing Board and shareholder approval for the...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP's Privatisation Bid Is Floundering

While Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With newsflow...

Arun George

Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines and is now partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to potentially...

Mio Kato

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