Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider's major Japan/global "standard" index.</li>
<li>6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.</li>
<li>These changes were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. Watch the direct peers.</li>
</ul>


On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider's major Japan/global "standard" index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
These changes were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. Watch the direct peers.


[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs - Differing Peer Dynamics - Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Q1 revenue +10% YoY, with business profit up ~21% YoY on strength in Rolling Stock and ES&amp;M, but headline net profit –72% YoY on FX headwinds and higher NCI drag.</li>
<li>Guidance / Revisions: FY26/3 guidance left unchanged, but steep H2 ask implies ~12% revenue and ~29% profit growth vs last year.</li>
<li>Outlook &amp; Valuation: Near-term pressured by FX/tariffs, but aero/energy support medium-term growth; trades at ~14x NTM P/E, ~7.6x EV/EBITDA, a discount to peers.</li>
</ul>


Q1 revenue +10% YoY, with business profit up ~21% YoY on strength in Rolling Stock and ES&amp;M, but headline net profit –72% YoY on FX headwinds and higher NCI drag.
Guidance / Revisions: FY26/3 guidance left unchanged, but steep H2 ask implies ~12% revenue and ~29% profit growth vs last year.
Outlook &amp; Valuation: Near-term pressured by FX/tariffs, but aero/energy support medium-term growth; trades at ~14x NTM P/E, ~7.6x EV/EBITDA, a discount to peers.


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) – Soft Start to FY26, Steep H2 Profit Ask Vs Guidance

<ul>
<li>Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.</li>
<li>Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.</li>
<li>Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.</li>
</ul>


Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics. </li>
<li>There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics. 
There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Japan

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs - Differing Peer Dynamics - Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)

Kawasaki Heavy was a well-flagged inclusion into the global index rebal on 26-Aug. The stock performed well, with peers, but after 30 June, started...

Travis Lundy

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) – Soft Start to FY26, Steep H2 Profit Ask Vs Guidance

FY26/3 guidance unchanged, H2 asks for 12% revenue and 29% profit growth; near-term pressure from FX/tariffs, medium-term growth from aero/energy;...

Rahul Jain

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

KHI bounces back with record profits in FY25, fueled by aerospace and energy sectors, poised for 5-6% growth driven by hydrogen and automation,...

Rahul Jain

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy should be added to a global index in August. The stock has moved higher and trades cheaper than its peers. There is positioning and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs - Differing Peer Dynamics - Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP)

Kawasaki Heavy was a well-flagged inclusion into the global index rebal on 26-Aug. The stock performed well, with peers, but after 30 June, started...

Travis Lundy

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) – Soft Start to FY26, Steep H2 Profit Ask Vs Guidance

​FY26/3 guidance unchanged, H2 asks for 12% revenue and 29% profit growth; near-term pressure from FX/tariffs, medium-term growth from aero/energy;...

Rahul Jain

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

​KHI bounces back with record profits in FY25, fueled by aerospace and energy sectors, poised for 5-6% growth driven by hydrogen and automation,...

Rahul Jain

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy should be added to a global index in August. The stock has moved higher and trades cheaper than its peers. There is positioning and...

Brian Freitas

FY26/3 guidance unchanged, H2 asks for 12% revenue and 29% profit growth; near-term pressure from FX/tariffs, medium-term growth from aero/energy;...

KHI bounces back with record profits in FY25, fueled by aerospace and energy sectors, poised for 5-6% growth driven by hydrogen and automation,...