Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.</li>
<li>India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.</li>
<li>Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs</li>
</ul>


SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.
India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.
Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs


INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>President Tokayev and the government view maintaining political stability in the aftermath of the managed presidential succession as their primary goal. Instead of enhancing democratic freedoms, the new leadership concentrates on poverty reduction. This year's moderate relaxation of fiscal policy gave a fillip to GDP growth, which accelerated to 4.3% in the eight months to August.</strong></p>
<p><strong>However, there are signs that the accelerating household demand is fuelling an adverse trend in the current account. We expect further KZT depreciation in the coming months, especially if Brent continues to decline. This, in turn, could fuel inflationary pressures, which are already rising. The NBK's commitment to inflation targeting may face a new serious test in the coming month. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Kazakhstan’s National Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bps in September.</strong> <strong>However, a single hike may be insufficient to counterbalance the inflationary effects of fiscal relaxation. Unfortunately, in addition to its conventional functions, the central bank is expected to participate in the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy, by extending mortgages and car loans to the population. This "double mandate" is an obstacle to proper inflation targeting. We believe that it increases the likelihood of a rise in KZT volatility in the coming months. </strong></p>
<p></p>
</div>


President Tokayev and the government view maintaining political stability in the aftermath of the managed presidential succession as their primary goal. Instead of enhancing democratic freedoms, the new leadership concentrates on poverty reduction. This year's moderate relaxation of fiscal policy gave a fillip to GDP growth, which accelerated to 4.3% in the eight months to August.
However, there are signs that the accelerating household demand is fuelling an adverse trend in the current account. We expect further KZT depreciation in the coming months, especially if Brent continues to decline. This, in turn, could fuel inflationary pressures, which are already rising. The NBK's commitment to inflation targeting may face a new serious test in the coming month. 
Kazakhstan’s National Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bps in September. However, a single hike may be insufficient to counterbalance the inflationary effects of fiscal relaxation. Unfortunately, in addition to its conventional functions, the central bank is expected to participate in the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy, by extending mortgages and car loans to the population. This "double mandate" is an obstacle to proper inflation targeting. We believe that it increases the likelihood of a rise in KZT volatility in the coming months. 



Kazakhstan: National Bank Needs More Independence to Keep KZT Volatility in Check

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.</p>
</div>


When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The snap presidential election due on Sunday 9 June should help allay investors' concerns. In the absence of real competition, we expect Nazarbayev’s nominee Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev to win. However, the substantial reduction in risks associated with presidential succession is unlikely to trigger an automatic upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings. In the last months of Nazarbayev's rule, we detected signs of increased pressure on the central bank to provide the economy with long money.  There are signs that President Tokayev is going to maintain the pressure on NBK, which we find worrying.


Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Among emerging market commodity exporters, Kazakhstan remains an example of a well-managed economy with stable growth and an improving business environment. The government sticks to a prudent fiscal policy allowing it to maintain low levels of debt. The recent switch to inflation targeting allows the economy to absorb external shocks via a weaker local currency FX rate. Despite the recent turbulence in the global markets, the government launched privatisation of large SOEs this month with a successful placement of shares in Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer. The government also managed to place euro-denominated sovereign Eurobonds on attractive terms. </p>
</div>


Among emerging market commodity exporters, Kazakhstan remains an example of a well-managed economy with stable growth and an improving business environment. The government sticks to a prudent fiscal policy allowing it to maintain low levels of debt. The recent switch to inflation targeting allows the economy to absorb external shocks via a weaker local currency FX rate. Despite the recent turbulence in the global markets, the government launched privatisation of large SOEs this month with a successful placement of shares in Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer. The government also managed to place euro-denominated sovereign Eurobonds on attractive terms. 


Kazakhstan Proves Its Credentials As a Safe Haven in Turbulent Times

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya / Equity Bottom-Up

Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya (KZAP KZ)

Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya

<ul><li>Kazatomprom's 2024 half-year results reveal a complex landscape of both opportunities and challenges.</li><li>Positively, the company remains a leading force in the uranium sector, leveraging its extensive resources and production capabilities to capitalize on strong market fundamentals driven by increasing global interest in nuclear energy.</li><li>The emphasis on nuclear power as a viable green energy solution has bolstered demand, potentially leading to a significant supply deficit by 2040, which Kazatomprom appears positioned to address with its strategic focus on expanding production and exploration efforts.</li></ul>

Kazatomprom's 2024 half-year results reveal a complex landscape of both opportunities and challenges.Positively, the company remains a leading force in the uranium sector, leveraging its extensive resources and production capabilities to capitalize on strong market fundamentals driven by increasing global interest in nuclear energy.The emphasis on nuclear power as a viable green energy solution has bolstered demand, potentially leading to a significant supply deficit by 2040, which Kazatomprom appears positioned to address with its strategic focus on expanding production and exploration efforts.

Kazatomprom: Initiation of Coverage- Sulfuric Acid Supply & Expanding Production Capacity Is A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Kazakhstan

Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya AO provides uranium. The Company imports and exports uranium, rare metals, nuclear fuel for power plants, non-ferrous metallurgy, cycle output, and duel-purpose materials. Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya conducts its business in Republic of Kazakhstan.

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Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya (KZAP KZ)

INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...

Rahul Jain

Kazakhstan: National Bank Needs More Independence to Keep KZT Volatility in Check

President Tokayev and the government view maintaining political stability in the aftermath of the managed presidential succession as their primary...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazakhstan Proves Its Credentials As a Safe Haven in Turbulent Times

Among emerging market commodity exporters, Kazakhstan remains an example of a well-managed economy with stable growth and an improving business...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazatomprom: Initiation of Coverage- Sulfuric Acid Supply & Expanding Production Capacity Is A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Kazatomprom's 2024 half-year results reveal a complex landscape of both opportunities and challenges. Positively, the company remains a leading...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

​SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...

Rahul Jain

Kazakhstan: National Bank Needs More Independence to Keep KZT Volatility in Check

President Tokayev and the government view maintaining political stability in the aftermath of the managed presidential succession as their primary...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential Election Should Ensure Smooth Presidential Succession

When President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in March, we were concerned that political uncertainty might affect Kazakh assets. The...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazakhstan Proves Its Credentials As a Safe Haven in Turbulent Times

Among emerging market commodity exporters, Kazakhstan remains an example of a well-managed economy with stable growth and an improving business...

Tatiana Orlova

Kazatomprom: Initiation of Coverage- Sulfuric Acid Supply & Expanding Production Capacity Is A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Kazatomprom's 2024 half-year results reveal a complex landscape of both opportunities and challenges. Positively, the company remains a leading...

Baptista Research

SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...