Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.</li><li>Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.</li></ul>

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.</li><li>The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.</li><li>We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.</li></ul>

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.</li>
<li>Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.</li>
</ul>


Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme.  The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.
USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn't get refinanced at all.
Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.


‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Republic First Bancorp / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.</li><li>The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.</li><li>We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.</li></ul>

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

United States

The KBW Bank Index is designed to track the performance of the leading banks and thrifts that are publicly-traded in the U.S. The Index includes 24 banking stocks representing the large U.S. national money centers, regional banks and thrift institutions.

KBW Bank Index (BKX INDEX)

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points: The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow. Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: US Banks

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector. The Reverse Repo facility...

Steno Research

‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!

San Francisco's office vacancy rate is at a whopping 29.5%. And the bad news is that it's not really an outlier; pressure on US commercial real...

Jeroen Blokland

Credit Becoming Due

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks...

Untying The Gordian Knot