Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan trails global peers in the proportion of payments that are cashless but it is starting to close the gap led by Internet and telecom companies</li>
<li>Rakuten is a fintech leader in Japan (15% of cashless payments) but PayPay is closing the gap as it ramps up cashless app users</li>
<li>We expect compound annual growth in the mid-teens but margin expansion will be limited by competitive intensity</li>
</ul>


Japan trails global peers in the proportion of payments that are cashless but it is starting to close the gap led by Internet and telecom companies
Rakuten is a fintech leader in Japan (15% of cashless payments) but PayPay is closing the gap as it ramps up cashless app users
We expect compound annual growth in the mid-teens but margin expansion will be limited by competitive intensity


Japan Fintech - Cashless Payments Competition Is Heating Up

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

<ul>
<li>The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration</li>
<li>NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held </li>
<li>The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage</li>
</ul>


The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration
NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held 
The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage


Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

<ul>
<li>Japan's telecom regulator has raised the issue of mobile spectrum auctions and is now soliciting public comments</li>
<li>We think this conflicts with national policies to boost ICT exports after years of trade deficits whilst new entrant Rakuten, which MIC supports to promote competition, would suffer</li>
<li>The proposals are for new spectrum only and current licenses and associated annual payments would not be affected. We remain overweight JP telcos, particularly NTT and KDDI</li>
</ul>


Japan's telecom regulator has raised the issue of mobile spectrum auctions and is now soliciting public comments
We think this conflicts with national policies to boost ICT exports after years of trade deficits whilst new entrant Rakuten, which MIC supports to promote competition, would suffer
The proposals are for new spectrum only and current licenses and associated annual payments would not be affected. We remain overweight JP telcos, particularly NTT and KDDI


Japan Telecoms - There Are Hurdles to the Introduction of Mobile Spectrum Auctions

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan Fintech - Cashless Payments Competition Is Heating Up

Japan telecom and Internet companies are driving growth in cashless payments led by Rakuten in credit cards and PayPay in cashless apps. This is a...

Kirk Boodry

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Public equity portfolios in our coverage represent 3% of total market cap, driven by capital alliances tied to business collaboration. We thought...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - There Are Hurdles to the Introduction of Mobile Spectrum Auctions

The regulator has taken up the issue of mobile spectrum auctions again but we think a focus on ICT export and concerns on competition stand in the way

Kirk Boodry

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