Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>During 3Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.3%y/y, accelerating from the +7.1% reported during 2Q2024.</li>
<li>Overall, 59% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and 63% delivered positive Sales surprises, a continuation of the positive trend witnessed in the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 3Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.3%y/y, accelerating from the +7.1% reported during 2Q2024.
Overall, 59% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and 63% delivered positive Sales surprises, a continuation of the positive trend witnessed in the previous quarter.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2024

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2Q24, KE’s revenue grew by 20% YoY despite the weak property market.</li>
<li>We believe property developers and personal landlords need KE more than the prosperous time.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 148% for the end of 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q24, KE’s revenue grew by 20% YoY despite the weak property market.
We believe property developers and personal landlords need KE more than the prosperous time.
We believe the stock has an upside of 148% for the end of 2025. Buy.


KE (BEKE US): Why Earning Money in Weak Market

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate</li>
<li>Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.</li>
<li>New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.</li>
</ul>


Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate
Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.
New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.


Real Estate:  India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

<ul>
<li>Record Low Allocations: Real Estate holdings in active China equity funds have plummeted to a new low of 2.51%, with only 76.4% of funds maintaining any position.</li>
<li>Recent Fund Rotation: Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the sector’s declining appeal.</li>
<li>KE Holdings Exception: Amidst the decline, KE Holdings (2423 HK) stands out, achieving an all-time high in fund ownership.</li>
</ul>


Record Low Allocations: Real Estate holdings in active China equity funds have plummeted to a new low of 2.51%, with only 76.4% of funds maintaining any position.
Recent Fund Rotation: Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the sector’s declining appeal.
KE Holdings Exception: Amidst the decline, KE Holdings (2423 HK) stands out, achieving an all-time high in fund ownership.


China Real Estate: Continued Fund Rotation Drives New Lows

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (2423 HK)

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

KE (BEKE US): Why Earning Money in Weak Market

We believe property developers and personal landlords need KE more than the prosperous time. We also believe the stock has an upside of 148% for...

Ming Lu

Real Estate: India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

Real Estate exposure grows among active Asia Ex-Japan funds, sparked by a rotation in to Indian Real Estate, as China & HK positioning falls.

Steven Holden

China Real Estate: Continued Fund Rotation Drives New Lows

Closures by key investors and a downturn in ownership metrics since October last year highlight the Real Estate sector’s declining appeal.

Steven Holden

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