Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beike (BEKE) reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAA op. profit and GAAP net income (2.5%), (43%) and (3.0%) vs. our est. </li>
<li>Since a strong start in C1Q25, both new and existing home sales growth have trended down after early March, against a weak 2024. </li>
<li>We cut TP by US$1 to US$24 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Beike (BEKE) reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAA op. profit and GAAP net income (2.5%), (43%) and (3.0%) vs. our est. 
Since a strong start in C1Q25, both new and existing home sales growth have trended down after early March, against a weak 2024. 
We cut TP by US$1 to US$24 and maintain BUY.


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: The Old China Braces for Turbulence & Change

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.</li>
<li>The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.


KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

<ul>
<li>Beike's (BEKE) C1Q25 rev. beat our est./cons. by 4.6%/4.0% and non-GAAP NI beat est./cons. by 18%/25%, due to scale effect and cost savings;</li>
<li>The near-term negative is that US-China trade truce reducing the possibility of large-scale stimulus on real estate. The near-term positive is margin expansion. </li>
<li>We keep rating and TP unchanged. We see the US$1.2bn (5.0% market value) shareholder return commitment in 2025 as a major positive.</li>
</ul>


Beike's (BEKE) C1Q25 rev. beat our est./cons. by 4.6%/4.0% and non-GAAP NI beat est./cons. by 18%/25%, due to scale effect and cost savings;
The near-term negative is that US-China trade truce reducing the possibility of large-scale stimulus on real estate. The near-term positive is margin expansion. 
We keep rating and TP unchanged. We see the US$1.2bn (5.0% market value) shareholder return commitment in 2025 as a major positive.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Review]: Margin Expansion and SH Return Vs. Lack of Stimulus

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;</li>
<li>We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers</li>
<li>We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.</li>
</ul>


We expect BEKE C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP NI to be 9% and 64% above consensus. The bottom line beat is a result of earning leverage;
We expect the market monthly EH/NH transaction volume to turn positive growth in C1H23, with resumed offline activities and continuing policy support as main drivers
We raise TP by US$1 to US$20: 1) dialling up GTV in 4Q22, 2) faster pace transaction recovery in 2023, and 3) rebase FX from 7.05 to 6.77 in valuation.


KE Holdings（BEKE.US) Preview:C4Q22 Marked the Beginning of 2023 Recovery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: The Old China Braces for Turbulence & Change

Beike reported lower than expected financial results for the second quarter of 2025, attributing the decline in home sales growth to a weak market...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24. The growth rate of active stores and active...

Ming Lu