Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.</li>
<li>New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.


KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

<ul>
<li>Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.</li>
<li>The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.


KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.</li>
<li>We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025. </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.</li>
</ul>


Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.
We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025. 
We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.


[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery

<ul>
<li>The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.</li>
<li>New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.</li>
</ul>


The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.
New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.
We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.


KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers

<ul>
<li>Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;</li>
<li>Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.</li>
</ul>


Beike (BEKE) reported C3Q24 revenue in-line with our estimate and consensus but non-GAAP operating profit 26%/25% below, mainly due to higher commission rebate and agent salaries;
Strong rebound in home transaction volumes in October and November, led to our C4Q24 revenue 16% above consensus. But the rebound needs more stimulus to sustain;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP to US$25 to reflect the near term rebound and steady market share gains.


[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: C4Q24 Rebound but What’s Next?

China

KE Holdings Inc. operates as an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services. The Company offers existing and new home sales, home rentals, home renovation, real estate financial solutions, and other services. KE Holdings conducts businesses in China.

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KE Holdings (BEKE US)

KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY an total revenue increased by 42% YoY. New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and...

Ming Lu

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24. The growth rate of active stores and active...

Ming Lu