Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One year since I first outlined the risks for Kellogg, it is the worst performer in its peer group.</li>
<li>The company's low valuation is justified by its low and deteriorating profitability.</li>
<li>Going forward, Kellogg's already low valuation is at risk.</li>
</ul>


One year since I first outlined the risks for Kellogg, it is the worst performer in its peer group.
The company's low valuation is justified by its low and deteriorating profitability.
Going forward, Kellogg's already low valuation is at risk.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.</p></div><div><p>It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.</p></div><div><p>MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. </p></div><div>
<p>In our previous notes, </p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-positives-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-negatives-high-debt-div-payments-floundering-ma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA</a> we spoke about the company background and its past performance.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-food-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-meat-alternative-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business</a> we compared the two business with their regional and global peers.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-not-cheap-but-sensible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible</a> we discussed our thoughts on valuation. </li>
</ul>
</div><div><p>In this note, we’ll talk about the final pricing and other dynamics.</p></div>

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. 
In our previous notes, 


Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share, and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA we spoke about the company background and its past performance.
In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business we compared the two business with their regional and global peers.
In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible we discussed our thoughts on valuation. 

In this note, we’ll talk about the final pricing and other dynamics.

Monde Nissin IPO - Might Not Be a High Flyer but Worth the Ride, Quorn Tastes Good

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.</p>

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

<div><p>Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.</p></div><div><p>It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.</p></div><div><p>MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. </p></div><div><p>In our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-positives-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-the-negatives-high-debt-div-payments-floundering-ma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA</a> we spoke about the company background and its past performance. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-food-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-for-meat-alternative-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business</a> we compared the two business with their regional and global peers. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> we discussed our thoughts on valuation.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll talk about implied valuation at its fixed price.</p></div>

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business (BFB), which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative (MA) business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. In our previous notes, Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share, and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA we spoke about the company background and its past performance. In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business and Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business we compared the two business with their regional and global peers. In Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation we discussed our thoughts on valuation.In this note, we’ll talk about implied valuation at its fixed price.

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p> In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.</p>
<p><strong>What is original about this report?</strong> Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.</p>

 In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

United States

Kellogg Company manufactures and markets ready-to-eat cereal and other convenience foods. The Company's products include cereals, cookies, crackers, toaster pastries, cereal bars, fruit snacks, frozen waffles and veggie foods. Kellogg markets its products in the United States, Canada, and other countries throughout the world.

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Kellogg Co (K US)

Kellogg: Even Low Valuations Are At Risk

One year since I first outlined the risks for Kellogg, it is the worst performer in its peer group. The company's low valuation is justified by...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Monde Nissin IPO - Might Not Be a High Flyer but Worth the Ride, Quorn Tastes Good

Monde Nissin aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO. It has two main businesses: Food and Beverage, which sells instant noodles, and...

Sumeet Singh

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible

Monde Nissin aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO. It has two main businesses: Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells...

Sumeet Singh

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Insights for investors based on comparative study of Asia D2C landscape across India, SE Asia & China.Analysis of relative segment attractiveness....

Devi Subhakesan

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