IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>’s EGM on 8 December requires majority shareholder approval of two ordinary resolutions. The IFA notes that the transaction terms are “not prejudicial” to minorities.</li>
<li>Keppel shareholders will be supportive due to attractive terms. The other key conditions precedent is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shareholders and regulatory approvals (SGX-ST and Maritime Port Authority of Singapore). </li>
<li>The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30 per share, which is 12% above the last close.</li>
</ul>



Keppel Corp (KEP SP)’s EGM on 8 December requires majority shareholder approval of two ordinary resolutions. The IFA notes that the transaction terms are “not prejudicial” to minorities.
Keppel shareholders will be supportive due to attractive terms. The other key conditions precedent is Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders and regulatory approvals (SGX-ST and Maritime Port Authority of Singapore). 
The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30 per share, which is 12% above the last close.


Keppel (KEP SP) Vote on Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine Transaction on 8 Dec

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>’s 3Q22 results beat both revenue and adjusted EBITDA consensus estimates. Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.</li>
<li>Chindata continues to attract rumours of takeover interest, most recently from China Merchants. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating make it a target. </li>
<li>A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>’s multiple implied by its founder’s offer (at US$8.20), would imply Chindata’s price of US$8 per ADS.  </li>
</ul>



Chindata Group (CD US)’s 3Q22 results beat both revenue and adjusted EBITDA consensus estimates. Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.
Chindata continues to attract rumours of takeover interest, most recently from China Merchants. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating make it a target. 
A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s multiple implied by its founder’s offer (at US$8.20), would imply Chindata’s price of US$8 per ADS.  


2023 High Conviction: Chindata's Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Under revised terms, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp (SMM SP)</a> will issue fewer shares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a>. It's now a takeover rather than Scheme. Keppel will deliver more shares to shareholders, keeping less.  </li>
<li>Stay cautiously positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> until the stock starts trading as if those who bought on momentum look like they are getting out. </li>
<li>With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old-school perspective applying Benjamin Graham's Net Nets</li>
</ul>


Under revised terms, Sembcorp (SMM SP) will issue fewer shares to Keppel (KEP SP). It's now a takeover rather than Scheme. Keppel will deliver more shares to shareholders, keeping less.  
Stay cautiously positive on Socionext (6526 JP) until the stock starts trading as if those who bought on momentum look like they are getting out. 
With investors chucking in the towel and the HSI touching a thirteen-year low, it's time for some old-school perspective applying Benjamin Graham's Net Nets


Last Week In Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Socionext, Jinke Smart, Hitachi Transport, Lifestyle Intl

<ul>
<li>The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> was revised from 56%:44% to 54%:46%. </li>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> shareholders, the revised terms will lower the overall value but in a shorter deal completion, higher EPS accretion and higher in-specie distribution of SMM shares.</li>
<li>The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our revised Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.17 per share, which is 23% above the last close.</li>
</ul>


The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) was revised from 56%:44% to 54%:46%. 
For Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders, the revised terms will lower the overall value but in a shorter deal completion, higher EPS accretion and higher in-specie distribution of SMM shares.
The deal is expected to close by the end of the year. Our revised Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.17 per share, which is 23% above the last close.


Keppel: Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Revised Terms

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a> disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).</li>
<li>The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/mbk-partners-is-said-to-weigh-rival-bid-for-chinese-data-center-firm-vnet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. </li>
<li>The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares</li>
</ul>



21Vianet Group (VNET US) disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).
The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. Bloomberg reported on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. 
The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares


VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

Singapore

Keppel DC REIT is Asia's first pure-play data centre REIT listed on the Singapore Exchange. Keppel DC REIT's investment strategy is to principally invest, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate assets which are used primarily for data centre purposes, as well as real estate related assets.

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Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP)

Keppel (KEP SP) Vote on Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine Transaction on 8 Dec

The transaction is a win-win for both sets of shareholders. The vote requires majority shareholder approval. Our Keppel SoTP valuation is S$8.30...

Arun George

2023 High Conviction: Chindata's Track Record & Rating Makes It a Takeover Target

Chindata raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year. Its track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and beaten-down rating...

Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Socionext, Jinke Smart, Hitachi Transport, Lifestyle Intl

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keppel: Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Revised Terms

Revised terms are an acceptable compromise for KEP shareholders - lower the overall value but result in a shorter deal completion, higher EPS...

Arun George

VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

The offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, with the data centre M&A activity levels remaining elevated, the current mispricing of the shares will...

Arun George

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