Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
In J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-supply-chain-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36778:1" rel="noopener">TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. </li>
<li>TVS SCS has seen its revenue grow as both its operating segments registered decent growth during the track record period. However, its profitability might have been a result of COVID-19. </li>
</ul>



TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. 
TVS SCS has seen its revenue grow as both its operating segments registered decent growth during the track record period. However, its profitability might have been a result of COVID-19. 


TVS Supply Chain Solutions Pre-IPO - Profitability Might Have Been COVID-Driven

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>.</li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics</li>
</ul>


I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB).
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics


I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading - Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer

Thailand

Kerry Express Thailand is a parcel delivery provider in Thailand

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Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which...

Arun George

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Pre-IPO - Profitability Might Have Been COVID-Driven

TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics...

Ethan Aw

I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading - Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer

I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB).

Sumeet Singh

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