HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Hunan Mabgeek Biotech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The low diagnosis rate has been one of the main reasons why the sales performance of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets.</li>
<li>Despite slightly better clinical data than dupilumab/stapokibart, MG-K10 may not achieve a significant actual clinical difference in the end. For MG-014, its prospects could be uncertain in China market. </li>
<li>Since Mabgeek has no commercialized product on the market, and the R&amp;D progress is lagging behind competing products, together with fierce competition, valuation of Mabgeek would be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


The low diagnosis rate has been one of the main reasons why the sales performance of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets.
Despite slightly better clinical data than dupilumab/stapokibart, MG-K10 may not achieve a significant actual clinical difference in the end. For MG-014, its prospects could be uncertain in China market. 
Since Mabgeek has no commercialized product on the market, and the R&amp;D progress is lagging behind competing products, together with fierce competition, valuation of Mabgeek would be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Hunan Mabgeek Biotech - The Concerns and the Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Xiaomi, Pop Mart Intl, CNOOC, Meituan, Zijin Gold International.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Xiaomi, Pop Mart Intl, CNOOC, Meituan, Zijin Gold International.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): $792m Outflows from Healthcare

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 31st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent, Meituan, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 31st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent, Meituan, Li Auto.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 31st): CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

<ul>
<li>The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.</li>
<li>The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.</li>
<li>Due to the concerns on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s </a>business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.</li>
<li>Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.</li>
<li>The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.
Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.
The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

China

Keymed Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies for autoimmune diseases and oncology. Their pipeline includes over 50 programs, with key products like Kangyueda® (Stapokibart, CM310) for atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

Pre-IPO Hunan Mabgeek Biotech - The Concerns and the Outlook

Low diagnosis in China lead to lower sales of autoimmune disease drug compared to overseas markets.MG-K10 may not have superiority, while MG-014's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): $792m Outflows from Healthcare

We estimated the inflows to Hong Kong stocks from mainland investors to be USD 11bn in October and noted outflows of $792m from Healthcare sector.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 31st): CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Hunan Mabgeek Biotech - The Concerns and the Outlook

​Low diagnosis in China lead to lower sales of autoimmune disease drug compared to overseas markets.MG-K10 may not have superiority, while MG-014's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): $792m Outflows from Healthcare

We estimated the inflows to Hong Kong stocks from mainland investors to be USD 11bn in October and noted outflows of $792m from Healthcare sector.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 31st): CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

​Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

​Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Low diagnosis in China lead to lower sales of autoimmune disease drug compared to overseas markets.MG-K10 may not have superiority, while MG-014's...

Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...