HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.</li>
<li>While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.</li>
<li>For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.</li>
</ul>


If checking the hot ADC transactions in recent years, a very big portion of ADC varieties in global licensing deals are from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which is actually very rare.
While international buyers are “very generous” for ADC assets and MNC's appetite would remain strong, they will immediately calm down and stop once they see any "potential risk" behind.
For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, ADC license-out deal is more of a temporary catalyst. We suggest taking a rational view. ADC CDMO (e.g. WuXi XDC) could be a better investment option.


China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low

Equity Capital Markets

Qyuns Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.</li>
<li>Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.</li>
<li>Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.</li>
</ul>


The sales scale of drugs for autoimmune diseases in China is much lower than that in overseas markets. So, internationalization is inevitable for companies in this industry.
Qyuns’s candidates have to face fierce competition, with no advantage in R&amp;D progress.Since Qyuns mainly do clinical trials in China, its future valuation is hard to have big expansion potential.
Many investors may still “live in the illusion” for China biotech. We think Qyuns would not finally transform into a biopharma. Its valuation should be lower than Keymed.


Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 17th): Meituan, Tencent, Xiaomi

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Abrocitinib/Upadacitinib/Dupilumab will all exert great pressure on the future commercialization space of CM310 in China. If Keymed doesn't run head-to-head trials with dupilumab, CM310’s internationalization outlook would be gloomy.</li>
<li>Compared with IL-4 that has been almost occupied by dupilumab, Keymed has more opportunity on TSLP. Even with Keymed-AstraZeneca deal, our valuation of CMG901 is cautious based on our analysis. </li>
<li>The current valuation of Keymed is not cheap. The next big catalyst to share price is a new license-out deal with MNC on CM310/CM326, marking the beginning of qualitative changes. </li>
</ul>


Abrocitinib/Upadacitinib/Dupilumab will all exert great pressure on the future commercialization space of CM310 in China. If Keymed doesn't run head-to-head trials with dupilumab, CM310’s internationalization outlook would be gloomy.
Compared with IL-4 that has been almost occupied by dupilumab, Keymed has more opportunity on TSLP. Even with Keymed-AstraZeneca deal, our valuation of CMG901 is cautious based on our analysis. 
The current valuation of Keymed is not cheap. The next big catalyst to share price is a new license-out deal with MNC on CM310/CM326, marking the beginning of qualitative changes. 


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - Looking Forward to the Next Leap in Valuation

Hong Kong

Keymed Biosciences Inc. operates a biotechnology company. The Company focus on the in-house discovery and development of innovative biological therapies. Keymed Biosciences provides services in China.

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Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)

China's Rising Role in Global ADC Partnership Wave - Opportunities and Risks Behind the Gold Rush

As China's ADCs continue to gain recognition from global buyers,the position of Chinese pharmaceutical companies is undergoing fundamental...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlight flows for TraHK, Xpeng, SMIC, CSOP Hang Seng ETF, Ping An Insurance.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics - Conservative About the Outlook

Qyuns’s pipeline lacks competitiveness, facing fierce competition.Together with bleak internationalization outlook, peak sales have obvious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 17th): Meituan, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - Looking Forward to the Next Leap in Valuation

It's hard for Keymed's share price to rise significantly on its own unless there's an uptick in the entire biotech sector as a whole. Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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