Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3%</li><li>Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving economic growth, which is expected to boost investor confidence.</li><li>The MPC is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% and may adopt a more positive view of Thailand's economic growth in 2026.</li></ul>

SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3%Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving economic growth, which is expected to boost investor confidence.The MPC is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% and may adopt a more positive view of Thailand's economic growth in 2026.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 26, 2026

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.</li><li>Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.</li><li>We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.</li></ul>

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash reserves in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to repurchase long-term bonds.Commercial bank loans grew 0.1% MoM in July and 2.6% YTD, driven by stronger demand from both the private and public sectors.We expect the SET Index to break below support at around 1,600 points due to external headwinds.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

<ul>
<li>SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus</li>
<li>The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.</li>
<li>Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.</li>
</ul>


SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus
The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term Treasuries.
Based on five-year statistics (2021-25), the SET delivered an average return of +0.7% during Thailand Focus week (August 26-28, 2026), with an 80% probability of gains.


Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt74.00, based on 0.91x PBV.</li><li>KKP has exited the asset-quality recovery cycle to a more balanced risk profile with excess provisions as a buffer.</li><li>The next phase focuses on quality growth in loans and fees, cost and capital management, while maintaining a high dividend yield of around 7%.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt74.00, based on 0.91x PBV.KKP has exited the asset-quality recovery cycle to a more balanced risk profile with excess provisions as a buffer.The next phase focuses on quality growth in loans and fees, cost and capital management, while maintaining a high dividend yield of around 7%.

KIATNAKIN PHATRA BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KKP): Focused On Quality Growth

<ul><li>KKP reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.8bn (+22% YoY, +6% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by ~11% and ~23% due to lower-than-expected provisions.</li><li>Provisions fell 23% YoY and 22% QoQ (including special provisions), lowering credit cost to 0.8% (–16 bps YoY, –21 bps QoQ).</li><li>Loan portfolio contracted (–6.7% YoY, –0.7% QoQ) across most segments, reflecting a more cautious growth strategy to safeguard asset quality.</li></ul>

KKP reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.8bn (+22% YoY, +6% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by ~11% and ~23% due to lower-than-expected provisions.Provisions fell 23% YoY and 22% QoQ (including special provisions), lowering credit cost to 0.8% (–16 bps YoY, –21 bps QoQ).Loan portfolio contracted (–6.7% YoY, –0.7% QoQ) across most segments, reflecting a more cautious growth strategy to safeguard asset quality.

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Plc. (KKP): 4Q25 Earnings Beat Expectations On Lower-Than-Expected Provisions.

Thailand

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited is a full-service commercial bank based in Thailand, offering a wide range of financial products and services to individual, business, corporate, and institutional clients. Its offerings include deposits, various types of loans (auto, personal, home, SME), investment products, and digital banking services. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1971.

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Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB)

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 26, 2026

SET expected to test resistance at 1,612 after crude oil prices plunged by more than 3% Thailand Focus 2026 will highlight the new engines driving...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 25, 2026

The 30-year US Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.2% amid concerns over tighter liquidity ahead, as the US Treasury plans to use its cash...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 24, 2026

SET expected to extend gains, supported by fund inflows ahead of Thailand Focus The US may further expand buybacks of medium- to long-term...

Krungthai XSpring

KIATNAKIN PHATRA BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (KKP): Focused On Quality Growth

We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt74.00, based on 0.91x PBV. KKP has exited the asset-quality recovery cycle to a more balanced...

Krungthai XSpring

Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Plc. (KKP): 4Q25 Earnings Beat Expectations On Lower-Than-Expected Provisions.

KKP reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.8bn (+22% YoY, +6% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by ~11% and ~23% due to lower-than-expected provisions.

Krungthai XSpring

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