IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK)</a> has launched its H Share listing at HK$35.00 to HK$36.30 per H Share. Pricing will be on 17 June.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/foshan-haitian-flavouring-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:187902" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>.</li>
<li>The proposed AH discount can be argued as either light or attractive. I lean toward the latter and would participate in the H Share listing.</li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK) has launched its H Share listing at HK$35.00 to HK$36.30 per H Share. Pricing will be on 17 June.
I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount can be argued as either light or attractive. I lean toward the latter and would participate in the H Share listing.


Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (FHF HK)</a>, the largest condiment company in China, is seeking an H-share IPO in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>It has established brand recognition and leadership positions, product innovation and diversification, opportunities from industry consolidation, and steady earnings with net cash.</li>
<li>Assuming a 28% HA discount, the same as the HS Stock Connect, this implies an FY25 PER of 23.2x. Versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1" rel="noopener">Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)</a>'s 23.8x, this seems not attractive enough. </li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (FHF HK), the largest condiment company in China, is seeking an H-share IPO in Hong Kong. 
It has established brand recognition and leadership positions, product innovation and diversification, opportunities from industry consolidation, and steady earnings with net cash.
Assuming a 28% HA discount, the same as the HS Stock Connect, this implies an FY25 PER of 23.2x. Versus Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)'s 23.8x, this seems not attractive enough. 


Foshan Haitian Flavouring Pre-IPO: A Stable Breed

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.</li>
<li>Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.</li>
<li>Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.</li>
</ul>


The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.
Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.
Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.


Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>The recent drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.

Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Japan

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

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Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)

Foshan Haitian Flavouring Pre-IPO: A Stable Breed

Foshan Haitian Flavouring has proceeded through the Exchange hearing, with the impending IPO targeting to raise as much as US$1bn. We recirculate...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights

Haitian has launched its H Share listing at HK$35.00 to HK$36.30 per H Share. The proposed AH discount is attractive, and I recommend participating...

Arun George

Foshan Haitian Flavouring Pre-IPO: A Stable Breed

Foshan Haitian Flavouring has proceeded through the Exchange hearing, with the impending IPO targeting to raise as much as US$1bn. We recirculate...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

​Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...