Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.</li>
<li>While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.</li>
<li>Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.</li>
</ul>


Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.
While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.
Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

<ul>
<li>Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).</li>
<li>We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.</li>
<li>We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).
We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.
We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.


Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Mexico

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. manufactures, markets and distributes consumer, industrial, and institutional hygiene products. The Company produces feminine care items, diapers, toilet paper and facial tissues.

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Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A (KIMBERA MM)

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.

Actinver

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

Having recently launched our Food & Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to...

Actinver

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

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