Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.</li>
<li>The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period</li>
<li>The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.</li>
</ul>


In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.
The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period
The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.


THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision</li>
<li>As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.</li>
<li>While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision
As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.
While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.


Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability</li>
<li>Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.</li>
<li>For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!</li>
</ul>


Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability
Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.
For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!


Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

<ul>
<li>Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY</li>
<li>A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies</li>
<li>Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?</li>
</ul>


Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY
A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies
Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?


Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

<ul>
<li>According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million</li>
<li>According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units</li>
<li>Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026</li>
</ul>


According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million
According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units
Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026


Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

United States

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

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KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Remedies like China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying "incentives & leverage" on allies so they follow suit....

William Keating

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

William Keating

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