Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place</li>
<li>Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency</li>
<li>Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US</li>
</ul>


Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place
Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency
Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US


Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stubhub-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45001:1" rel="noopener">StubHub Holdings (STUB US)</a> went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stubhub-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45001:1" rel="noopener">StubHub Holdings (STUB US)</a> is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.</li>
<li>The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.</li>
</ul>



StubHub Holdings (STUB US) went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.

StubHub Holdings (STUB US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.
The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.


StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

StubHub Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company priced a full-size offering of 34.04 million shares at $23.50, the midpoint of the $22–$25 range, raising more than $750 million.</li>
<li>Shares opened at $25.35, a 7.8% premium to the issue price, but that initial pop quickly evaporated. The stock closed its opening session at $22.00.</li>
<li>Over the next 30 days, we expect investors to remain cautious, with many likely trimming exposure until upcoming quarterly results offer greater clarity.</li>
</ul>


The company priced a full-size offering of 34.04 million shares at $23.50, the midpoint of the $22–$25 range, raising more than $750 million.
Shares opened at $25.35, a 7.8% premium to the issue price, but that initial pop quickly evaporated. The stock closed its opening session at $22.00.
Over the next 30 days, we expect investors to remain cautious, with many likely trimming exposure until upcoming quarterly results offer greater clarity.


StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klarna-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44090:1" rel="noopener">Klarna Group (KLAR US)</a> can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.</li>
</ul>



Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.

Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.

Klarna Group (KLAR US) can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.


Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>Klarna priced a full-size IPO of 34.3 million shares at $40.00, coming in $3 above the marketed range. Shares opened on Tuesday at $52.00, a +30.0% gain at first trade.</li>
<li>The deal reflected exceptional institutional interest, reportedly 25x oversubscribed, with half the order book zeroed. The top 10 accounts received 45% of allocations, and the top 25 took 65%.</li>
<li>It's difficult to forecast 30-days out with this IPO given the market moving headlines and events expected. Overall, we believe that the stock could trade flat to slightly higher.</li>
</ul>


Klarna priced a full-size IPO of 34.3 million shares at $40.00, coming in $3 above the marketed range. Shares opened on Tuesday at $52.00, a +30.0% gain at first trade.
The deal reflected exceptional institutional interest, reportedly 25x oversubscribed, with half the order book zeroed. The top 10 accounts received 45% of allocations, and the top 25 took 65%.
It's difficult to forecast 30-days out with this IPO given the market moving headlines and events expected. Overall, we believe that the stock could trade flat to slightly higher.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

United States

Klarna is a Swedish fintech company that provides online financial services. The company provides payment processing services for the e-commerce industry.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Klarna Group (KLAR US)

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion

STUB is expected to join US TMI in December 2025 and other US and Global indices in 2026 following the 6-month lock-up expiry that lifts free...

Dimitris Ioannidis

StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

IPO Boutique

Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion

​STUB is expected to join US TMI in December 2025 and other US and Global indices in 2026 following the 6-month lock-up expiry that lifts free...

Dimitris Ioannidis

StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

​Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

IPO Boutique

Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

​KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Klarna Group (KLAR): Pops at Open but Fades Into Weak Aftermarket Following Above-Range IPO Pricing

​Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.

IPO Boutique

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

STUB is expected to join US TMI in December 2025 and other US and Global indices in 2026 following the 6-month lock-up expiry that lifts free...

Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

KLAR faces index exclusion in US and EU due to a US foreign listing and UK headquarters. Global index inclusion is possible in September 2026...

Klarna's IPO priced above range, with strong institutional interest and potential for flat to slightly higher trading in the future.